luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

2026 NFL season · October 8, 2026–October 12

Week 5 2026: who deserved to win

2 of 15 winners were behind in the replays. The biggest heist: the Buccaneers beat the Cowboys 24–16 in a game they win 4% of the time when it’s replayed with the way both teams played.

The line on each card fills with how often the loser wins the replay: the fuller, the more luck decided it. Outlined: the winner was behind in the replays.

Week 5 2026 upsets

Games the betting underdog won, biggest upset first, and whether the way both teams played backs it up. 3 of 5 were deserved: the underdog wins 60% or more of the replays with the same day’s form.

WinnerGameBefore kickoffReplay with same day’s formVerdict
Buccaneers 24–16 @ Cowboys 24% 4% Lucky
Ravens 30–23 @ Falcons 40% 81% Deserved
Bills 37–34 @ Rams 40% 28% Lucky
49ers 32–29 @ Seahawks 41% 98% Deserved
Packers 31–7 vs Bears 46% 91% Deserved

Week 5 luck ranking

Every team’s luck index this week: 100 × (the result − how often they win the replay). A loss in a game a team wins 9 times in 10 scores −90.

#TeamGameWins the replayLuck index
1 Buccaneers W 24–16 @ Cowboys 4% +96
2 Bills W 37–34 @ Rams 28% +72
3 Steelers W 34–22 vs Colts 61% +39
4 Broncos W 23–17 @ Chargers 71% +29
5 Vikings W 23–13 @ Saints 79% +21
6 Ravens W 30–23 @ Falcons 81% +19
7 Lions W 45–21 @ Cardinals 82% +18
8 Jaguars W 19–17 vs Eagles 84% +16
9 Texans W 26–3 @ Titans 84% +16
10 Jets W 17–12 vs Browns 85% +15
11 Bengals W 31–24 @ Dolphins 90% +10
12 Packers W 31–7 vs Bears 91% +9
13 Giants T 27–27 @ Commanders 46% +4
14 49ers W 32–29 @ Seahawks 98% +2
15 Patriots W 45–17 vs Raiders 98% +2
16 Raiders L 17–45 @ Patriots 2% −2
17 Seahawks L 29–32 vs 49ers 2% −2
18 Commanders T 27–27 vs Giants 54% −4
19 Bears L 7–31 @ Packers 9% −9
20 Dolphins L 24–31 vs Bengals 10% −10
21 Browns L 12–17 @ Jets 15% −15
22 Titans L 3–26 vs Texans 16% −16
23 Eagles L 17–19 @ Jaguars 16% −16
24 Cardinals L 21–45 vs Lions 18% −18
25 Falcons L 23–30 vs Ravens 19% −19
26 Saints L 13–23 vs Vikings 21% −21
27 Chargers L 17–23 vs Broncos 29% −29
28 Colts L 22–34 @ Steelers 39% −39
29 Rams L 34–37 vs Bills 72% −72
30 Cowboys L 16–24 vs Buccaneers 96% −96