Week 5 2026 · October 11, 2026
Eagles vs Jaguars, Week 5 2026: who deserved to win?
The Jaguars beat the Eagles 19–17, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 8 of 10. The Eagles had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 15 points of win probability to the Eagles.
Before kickoff the Jaguars were 71% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 0:01 left): C. Little made a 57-yard field goal, worth 34 points of win probability to the Jaguars.
Final
 Philadelphia Eagles | 17 |
|---|---|
 Jacksonville Jaguars | 19 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +16 Jaguars about even · −16 Eagles
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Eagles win 2, Jaguars win 8.
- 1 PHI 27 JAX 16
- 2 PHI 15 JAX 12
- 3 PHI 22 JAX 24
- 4 PHI 10 JAX 14
- 5 PHI 6 JAX 13
- 6 PHI 15 JAX 25
- 7 PHI 10 JAX 23
- 8 PHI 17 JAX 33
- 9 PHI 9 JAX 30
- 10 PHI 0 JAX 27
Your call
Did the Jaguars earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Jaguars by 10.9, 80% to win. The Jaguars won by 2: the pick was right. The final margin was 8.9 points from ours; 47% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Eagles win | 19.7% |
| Jaguars win | 80.3% |
| Middle 50%: Jaguars by 3 to Jaguars by 20 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Eagles by 10 to Jaguars by 32 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Eagles by 14 to Jaguars by 35 | 95% |
| Exactly Jaguars by 3 | 7.2% |
| Exactly Jaguars by 14 | 5.6% |
| Exactly Jaguars by 7 | 5.5% |
| Exactly Eagles by 3 | 4.8% |
| Exactly Jaguars by 10 | 4.6% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. Made Sun, Oct 11, 9:23 am ET and frozen at kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Eagles win 16% of them, Jaguars 84%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 2.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Eagles by 17+ | 1.0% |
| Eagles by 9–16 | 4.5% |
| Eagles by 1–8 | 10.1% |
| Level after regulation | 1.2% |
| Jaguars by 1–8 | 25.1% |
| Jaguars by 9–16 | 21.9% |
| Jaguars by 17+ | 36.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Little, 34 yds made · 95% expected
- J. Elliott, 48 yds made · 73% expected
- C. Little, 57 yds made · 65% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Eagles 7 for 43 yards, Jaguars 13 for 100 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 13:24 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +6% PHI +2.0 pts |
| Q1 11:54 | Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.4 pts |
| Q1 2:30 | False Start on the Jaguars, 4 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.6 pts |
| Q2 9:33 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Travis Hunter), 14 yards | +7% PHI +2.7 pts |
| Q2 8:38 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Jakobi Meyers), 10 yards | +3% PHI +0.7 pts |
| Q3 13:31 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 7 yards | +3% PHI +1.4 pts |
| Q3 11:56 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Eagles (Nolan Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% JAX +0.8 pts |
| Q3 8:32 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% PHI +1.6 pts |
| Q3 7:11 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Darius Cooper), 10 yards | +3% JAX +0.8 pts |
| Q3 6:00 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Jaguars (Jarrian Jones), 10 yards | +8% PHI +1.9 pts |
| Q3 1:01 | Delay of Game on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% JAX +0.7 pts |
| Q4 14:07 | Offensive Holding on the Eagles (Carson Steele), 10 yards | +1% JAX +0.9 pts |
| Q4 13:19 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Darius Cooper), 3 yards, wiping out the play | +9% JAX +1.4 pts |
| Q4 13:19 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% JAX +0.6 pts |
| Q4 11:38 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Brenton Strange), 10 yards, wiping out the play | +15% PHI +1.8 pts |
| Q4 11:16 | False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PHI +0.3 pts |
| Q4 8:09 | False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% PHI +0.9 pts |
| Q4 7:22 | Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PHI +0.9 pts |
| Q4 7:17 | Delay of Game on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap | +5% PHI +0.5 pts |
| Q4 1:31 | False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% JAX +0.4 pts |
Eagles penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Jaguars’ chance of winning
As low as 25% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:56 | The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected | +11% JAX | PHI: Punt |
| 2 | Q4 13:19 | Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Darius Cooper), 3 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 3 flags in 501 snaps before, position avg 1 per 400False Start on the Eagles, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +12% JAX | JAX: Turnover on downs |
| 3 | Q4 11:38 | Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Brenton Strange), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 12 flags in 2081 snaps before, position avg 1 per 273 | +15% PHI | PHI: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 3:26 | The Jaguars converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected | +24% JAX | JAX: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 1:27 | The Eagles converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +10% PHI | PHI: Field goal |
| 6 | Q4 0:17 | The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 50% expected | +11% JAX | PHI: Field goal |
| 7 | Q4 0:12 | J. Elliott made a 48-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 43 of 66 from 45+ before | +27% PHI | – |
| 8 | Q4 0:01 | The game turned hereC. Little made a 57-yard field goalKicks · 65% expected for him, 24 of 32 from 45+ before | +34% JAX | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Eric Murray (JAX S), out · 0.3 pts
- Patrick Mekari (JAX OL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
- DeVonta Smith (PHI WR), out · 1.4 pts
- Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.2 pts
- Landon Dickerson (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Saquon Barkley (PHI RB), out · 0.5 pts
- Marcus Epps (PHI S), out · 0.3 pts
- Drew Kendall (PHI C), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Eagles 10% · Jaguars 90%
- Final margin
- Jaguars by 2
- Luck in points
- 4.4 for the Eagles
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jaguars by 6.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Eagles 16% · Jaguars 84% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2026 games · 
Eagles · 
Jaguars
More from Week 5 2026
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- Bengals at Dolphins CIN 31–24 · replay 90% for the winner
- Browns at Jets NYJ 17–12 · replay 85% for the winner
- Texans at Titans HOU 26–3 · replay 84% for the winner
- Colts at Steelers PIT 34–22 · replay 61% for the winner
- Raiders at Patriots NE 45–17 · replay 98% for the winner
- Vikings at Saints MIN 23–13 · replay 79% for the winner
- Giants at Commanders WAS 27–27 · replay 54% for the winner
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- 49ers at Seahawks SF 32–29 · replay 98% for the winner
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