2026 season · in progress
Jacksonville Jaguars, 2026: game by game
The Jaguars went 6–2 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.3 wins. Luck cost them 0.3: the 13th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 2–2.
Every game
How often the Jaguars win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Next games: our predictions
Every game ahead, forecast adjusted for luck. Each page has the spread, the win chance and the range of likely margins, and shows who deserved to win once it’s played.
| Week | Game | Our pick | Jaguars win chance |
|---|---|---|---|
| Week 10 · Nov 15 | at Titans |  Jaguars by 11.1 | 80% |
| Week 11 · Nov 22 | at Giants | Jaguars by 5.1 | 65% |
| Week 12 · Nov 29 | vs Titans | Jaguars by 15.8 | 89% |
| Week 13 · Dec 6 | at Bears |  Bears by 0.2 | 49% |
| Week 14 · Dec 14 | vs Steelers | Jaguars by 6.6 | 69% |
| Week 15 · Dec 20 | at Texans | Jaguars by 3.2 | 60% |
| Week 16 · Dec 27 | at Cowboys | Jaguars by 2.9 | 59% |
| Week 17 · Jan 3 | vs Commanders | Jaguars by 11.3 | 80% |
| Week 18 · Jan 10 | at Colts | Jaguars by 8.1 | 73% |
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Jaguars’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.29 | +12.1 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.17 | +5.9 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.08 | −1.7 |
| Rest | +0.03 | +1.6 |
| Kicks | −0.14 | +3.8 |
| Drops | −0.24 | −10.2 |
| Judgment calls | −0.39 | −9.2 |