2026 season · in progress

Jacksonville Jaguars, 2026: game by game

The Jaguars went 1–1 so far in 2026; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 1.4 wins. Luck cost them 0.4: the 11th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 0–1.

Every game

How often the Jaguars win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Browns	W 34–10	98%	+2
Week 2	@ Broncos	L 13–20	40%	−40

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +2 vs CLE

Wk 2 −40 @ DEN

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Jaguars’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Judgment calls	+1.9	+0.94
Fumble bounces	+1.6	+0.79
3rd & 4th downs	+1.5	+0.74
Rest	+0.2	+0.10
Injuries	−0.1	−0.03
Kicks	−1.8	−0.90
Drops	−4.7	−2.35