luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026

Browns at Jaguars, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Browns 34–10, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 74% favorites.

Final

Cleveland Browns 10
Jacksonville Jaguars 34

September 13, 2026 · EverBank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −8.5

Our prediction before kickoff: Jaguars by 9.3

Luck index +1 Jaguars about even · −1 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 0, Jaguars win 10.

  1. 1 CLE 24 JAX 27
  2. 2 CLE 10 JAX 19
  3. 3 CLE 7 JAX 19
  4. 4 CLE 3 JAX 17
  5. 5 CLE 13 JAX 30
  6. 6 CLE 3 JAX 23
  7. 7 CLE 3 JAX 26
  8. 8 CLE 3 JAX 29
  9. 9 CLE 14 JAX 44
  10. 10 CLE 13 JAX 49

Our prediction before kickoff

We had the Jaguars by 9.3, 77% to win. The Jaguars won by 24: the pick was right. The final margin was 14.7 points from ours; 25% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Browns win23.2%
Jaguars win76.8%
Middle 50%: Jaguars by 2 to Jaguars by 1850%
Middle 90%: Browns by 12 to Jaguars by 3190%
Middle 95%: Browns by 16 to Jaguars by 3595%
Exactly Jaguars by 37.6%
Exactly Jaguars by 75.7%
Exactly Browns by 35.5%
Exactly Jaguars by 145.4%
Exactly Jaguars by 104.6%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 1% of them, Jaguars 99%. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.0%
Browns by 9–160.1%
Browns by 1–80.7%
Level after regulation0.1%
Jaguars by 1–83.2%
Jaguars by 9–1611.5%
Jaguars by 17+84.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +5.0 points to the Jaguars: the final margin was Jaguars by 24, without the luck Jaguars by 19. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Little, 47 yds made · 82% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Little, 40 yds made · 90% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Browns 11 for 75 yards, Jaguars 4 for 25 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 8:11 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Emmanuel McNeil-Warren), 10 yards +2% JAX +0.9 pts
Q1 5:11 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Sam Williams), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% JAX +0.3 pts
Q1 4:23 False Start on the Jaguars, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CLE +0.7 pts
Q1 4:03 Illegal Forward Pass on the Jaguars (Trevor Lawrence), 5 yards +1% CLE +0.3 pts
Q2 0:51 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards 0% JAX +0.8 pts
Q2 0:44 False Start on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.4 pts
Q2 0:44 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.4 pts
Q2 0:38 Offensive Holding on the Browns, 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% JAX +1.5 pts
Q3 14:20 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Mason Graham), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.5 pts
Q3 12:39 False Start on the Jaguars (Brenton Strange), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% CLE +0.3 pts
Q3 8:38 Delay of Game on the Browns, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.9 pts
Q3 3:40 Offensive Holding on the Jaguars (Nate Boerkircher), 10 yards, wiping out the play 0% CLE +1.8 pts
Q3 1:48 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Nathaniel Watson), 10 yards 0% JAX +0.9 pts
Q4 10:50 False Start on the Browns (Blake Whiteheart), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.9 pts
Q4 7:29 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Browns (Jared Verse), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% JAX +0.2 pts

Browns penalties, every game · Jaguars penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:17 The Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws +4% JAX CLE: Punt
2 Q1 11:06 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 77% expected +2% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:18 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +5% JAX JAX: Touchdown
4 Q1 8:11 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Emmanuel McNeil-Warren), 10 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet +2% JAX JAX: Touchdown
5 Q1 6:47 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expectedThe Browns got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 55% of interception-worthy throws +2% CLE CLE: Punt
6 Q1 4:55 The Jaguars fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% JAX JAX: Touchdown
7 Q2 8:38 The Browns fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +2% JAX CLE: Punt
8 Q2 6:58 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +2% JAX JAX: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Patrick Mekari (JAX OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Wright (CLE DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Teven Jenkins (CLE G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 0% · Jaguars 100%

Final margin
Jaguars by 24
Luck in points
5.0 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 19.0
Replay with same day's form
Browns 1% · Jaguars 99% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Browns · Jaguars

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