luckadjusted

Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026

Browns at Jaguars, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

The Jaguars beat the Browns 34–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jaguars win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Jaguars were 74% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 8:18 left): the Jaguars converted 3rd & 7, worth 9 points of win probability to the Jaguars.

Final

Cleveland Browns 10
Jacksonville Jaguars 34

September 13, 2026 · EverBank Stadium · Closing line: Jaguars −8.5

Luck index +2 Jaguars about even · −2 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 0, Jaguars win 10.

  1. 1 CLE 13 JAX 16
  2. 2 CLE 6 JAX 13
  3. 3 CLE 10 JAX 20
  4. 4 CLE 7 JAX 20
  5. 5 CLE 7 JAX 22
  6. 6 CLE 17 JAX 34
  7. 7 CLE 10 JAX 30
  8. 8 CLE 0 JAX 23
  9. 9 CLE 6 JAX 34
  10. 10 CLE 10 JAX 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 2% of them, Jaguars 98%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jaguars by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+0.0%
Browns by 9–160.3%
Browns by 1–81.4%
Level after regulation0.5%
Jaguars by 1–86.0%
Jaguars by 9–1617.0%
Jaguars by 17+74.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jaguars by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jaguars by 19.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Little, 47 yds made · 81% expected
  • A. Szmyt, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. Little, 40 yds made · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:17 The Browns threw an interception-worthy pass, and it was pickedInterceptions · 51% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +5% JAX CLE: Punt
2 Q1 11:06 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +2% JAX JAX: Touchdown
3 Q1 8:18 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +9% JAX JAX: Touchdown
4 Q1 8:11 Offensive Holding on the Browns (Emmanuel McNeil-Warren), 10 yardsJudgment calls · no snap history yet +2% JAX JAX: Touchdown
5 Q1 4:55 The Jaguars fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% JAX JAX: Touchdown
6 Q2 9:58 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 64% expected +1% CLE JAX: Field goal
7 Q2 8:38 The Browns fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +2% JAX CLE: Punt
8 Q2 6:58 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +2% JAX JAX: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Patrick Mekari (JAX OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Alex Wright (CLE DE), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Teven Jenkins (CLE G), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 0% · Jaguars 100%

Final margin
Jaguars by 24
Luck in points
5.0 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Jaguars by 19.0
Replay with same day's form
Browns 2% · Jaguars 98% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Browns · Jaguars

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