luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026

Dolphins at Raiders, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Dolphins 27–13, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Raiders win 4 of 10.

Before kickoff the Raiders were 59% favorites.

Final

Miami Dolphins 13
Las Vegas Raiders 27

September 13, 2026 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Raiders −3

Our prediction before kickoff: Dolphins by 0.7

Luck index +56 Raiders lucky · −56 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Dolphins win 6, Raiders win 4.

  1. 1 MIA 34 LV 12
  2. 2 MIA 28 LV 13
  3. 3 MIA 23 LV 13
  4. 4 MIA 22 LV 16
  5. 5 MIA 10 LV 7
  6. 6 MIA 16 LV 14
  7. 7 MIA 20 LV 23
  8. 8 MIA 3 LV 9
  9. 9 MIA 10 LV 22
  10. 10 MIA 3 LV 20

Our prediction before kickoff

We had the Dolphins by 0.7, 52% to win. The Raiders won by 14, a result we gave 48%. The final margin was 14.7 points from ours; 24% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.

Show as a table
OutcomeChance
Dolphins win52.2%
Raiders win47.8%
Middle 50%: Dolphins by 10 to Raiders by 750%
Middle 90%: Dolphins by 22 to Raiders by 2190%
Middle 95%: Dolphins by 26 to Raiders by 2495%
Exactly Dolphins by 38.5%
Exactly Raiders by 38.3%
Exactly Dolphins by 75.1%
Exactly Raiders by 74.8%
Exactly Dolphins by 103.6%

Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Dolphins win 56% of them, Raiders 44%, counting the 6% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Dolphins by 17+10.6%
Dolphins by 9–1617.0%
Dolphins by 1–822.6%
Level after regulation5.9%
Raiders by 1–820.8%
Raiders by 9–1615.4%
Raiders by 17+7.7%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +11.1 points to the Raiders: the final margin was Raiders by 14, without the luck Raiders by 2.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Gay, 47 yds made · 77% expected
  • R. Patterson, 41 yds made · 89% expected
  • R. Patterson, 37 yds made · 93% expected
  • M. Gay, 30 yds made · 96% expected
  • R. Patterson, 41 yds missed · 89% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Dolphins 8 for 61 yards, Raiders 6 for 29 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 10:53 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.9 pts
Q2 12:44 Taunting on the Dolphins (Julius Brents), 15 yards +4% LV +1.8 pts
Q2 7:16 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% MIA +0.5 pts
Q2 6:59 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards +3% LV +0.9 pts
Q2 6:45 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% LV +1.5 pts
Q3 13:38 False Start on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LV +0.7 pts
Q3 2:41 Offensive Offside on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.1 pts
Q4 12:21 Illegal Contact on the Dolphins (Julius Brents), 5 yards 0% LV +0.6 pts
Q4 12:21 False Start on the Raiders (Dareke Young), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.6 pts
Q4 5:58 Defensive Pass Interference on the Raiders (Quay Walker), 4 yards 0% MIA +0.2 pts
Q4 4:04 Delay of Game on the Dolphins, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% LV +0.3 pts
Q4 3:40 False Start on the Raiders, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIA +0.2 pts
Q4 3:11 Illegal Use of Hands on the Raiders (Hezekiah Masses), 5 yards 0% MIA +0.7 pts
Q4 3:07 Illegal Use of Hands on the Dolphins, 6 yards, wiping out the play +2% LV +2.1 pts

Dolphins penalties, every game · Raiders penalties, every game · All teams, 2026

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Dolphins were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:14 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +6% MIA MIA: Punt
2 Q1 8:57 The Raiders converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +4% LV LV: Touchdown
3 Q1 4:29 The Raiders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +5% LV LV: Touchdown
4 Q1 1:38 The Raiders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +5% LV LV: Touchdown
5 Q2 12:44 Taunting on the Dolphins (Julius Brents), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 3 flags in 769 snaps before, position avg 1 per 211 +4% LV LV: Field goal
6 Q2 6:45 Offensive Holding on the Dolphins, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +4% LV LV: Touchdown
7 Q2 4:54 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +4% LV MIA: Field goal
8 Q3 0:11 R. Patterson missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +5% LV MIA: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Brock Bowers (LV TE), out · 1.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Dolphins 34% · Raiders 66%

Final margin
Raiders by 14
Luck in points
11.1 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 2.9
Replay with same day's form
Dolphins 56% · Raiders 44% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Dolphins · Raiders

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