luckadjusted

Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026

Jets at Titans, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

The Jets beat the Titans 23–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Jets win 8 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.0 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Titans were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:44 left): J. Sanders missed 54-yard field goal, worth 15 points of win probability to the Titans.

Final

New York Jets 23
Tennessee Titans 10

September 13, 2026 · Nissan Stadium · Closing line: Titans −1.5

Luck index +19 Jets about even · −19 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jets win 8, Titans win 2.

  1. 1 NYJ 27 TEN 3
  2. 2 NYJ 38 TEN 20
  3. 3 NYJ 27 TEN 13
  4. 4 NYJ 30 TEN 19
  5. 5 NYJ 9 TEN 0
  6. 6 NYJ 12 TEN 6
  7. 7 NYJ 27 TEN 24
  8. 8 NYJ 28 TEN 26
  9. 9 NYJ 14 TEN 17
  10. 10 NYJ 10 TEN 22

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jets win 81% of them, Titans 19%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 13.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jets by 17+23.1%
Jets by 9–1625.9%
Jets by 1–826.9%
Level after regulation4.8%
Titans by 1–813.0%
Titans by 9–165.1%
Titans by 17+1.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Jets by 13. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Jets by 16.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 42 yds made · 85% expected
  • J. Sanders, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Sanders, 54 yds missed · 69% expected
  • J. Sanders, 51 yds made · 73% expected
  • J. Sanders, 52 yds made · 72% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Titans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Titans were ahead in it, below while the Jets were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:10 The Jets converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +11% NYJ NYJ: Touchdown
2 Q2 10:14 The Jets converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +6% NYJ NYJ: Field goal
3 Q2 5:09 The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +5% TEN NYJ: Field goal
4 Q2 5:03 The Titans fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% NYJ TEN: Punt
5 Q2 2:44 J. Sanders missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 65 of 90 from 45+ before +15% TEN NYJ: End of half
6 Q2 1:22 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +5% NYJ TEN: Punt
7 Q3 8:55 The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expectedT. Spears dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 133 catchable balls before this +6% NYJ TEN: Punt
8 Q3 4:44 Offensive Holding on the Jets, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% TEN TEN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Cedric Gray (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jaylen Harrell (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jets 99% · Titans 1%

Final margin
Jets by 13
Luck in points
3.9 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Jets by 16.9
Replay with same day's form
Jets 81% · Titans 19% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Jets · Titans

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