Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026
Jets at Titans, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
The Jets beat the Titans 23–10, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Titans had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 17 points of win probability to the Titans.
Before kickoff the Titans were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:44 left): J. Sanders missed a 54-yard field goal, worth 15 points of win probability to the Titans.
Final
 New York Jets | 23 |
|---|---|
 Tennessee Titans | 10 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +27 Jets lucky · −27 Titans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Jets win 7, Titans win 3.
- 1 NYJ 29 TEN 6
- 2 NYJ 23 TEN 6
- 3 NYJ 34 TEN 21
- 4 NYJ 13 TEN 3
- 5 NYJ 20 TEN 13
- 6 NYJ 9 TEN 6
- 7 NYJ 12 TEN 10
- 8 NYJ 3 TEN 6
- 9 NYJ 13 TEN 21
- 10 NYJ 12 TEN 27
Your call
Did the Jets earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Titans by 0.7, 52% to win. The Jets won by 13, a result we gave 48%. The final margin was 13.7 points from ours; 28% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Jets win | 47.8% |
| Titans win | 52.3% |
| Middle 50%: Jets by 7 to Titans by 10 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Jets by 21 to Titans by 22 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Jets by 24 to Titans by 26 | 95% |
| Exactly Titans by 3 | 8.5% |
| Exactly Jets by 3 | 8.3% |
| Exactly Titans by 7 | 5.1% |
| Exactly Jets by 7 | 4.8% |
| Exactly Titans by 10 | 3.6% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Jets win 73% of them, Titans 27%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Jets by 13.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Jets by 17+ | 19.4% |
| Jets by 9–16 | 22.7% |
| Jets by 1–8 | 29.3% |
| Level after regulation | 4.9% |
| Titans by 1–8 | 14.9% |
| Titans by 9–16 | 6.7% |
| Titans by 17+ | 2.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- J. Slye, 42 yds made · 86% expected
- J. Sanders, 33 yds made · 96% expected
- J. Sanders, 54 yds missed · 70% expected
- J. Sanders, 51 yds made · 72% expected
- J. Sanders, 52 yds made · 71% expected
Penalties: Jets 8 for 48 yards, Titans 4 for 25 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 15:00 | Kickoff Out of Bounds on the Titans (Joey Slye), 0 yards · pre-snap | 0% NYJ 0.0 pts |
| Q1 14:24 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Alontae Taylor), 10 yards | +3% NYJ +1.0 pts |
| Q1 12:55 | Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TEN +0.8 pts |
| Q1 7:39 | Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards | +3% NYJ +1.2 pts |
| Q1 6:58 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Jets (David Bailey), 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% TEN +1.1 pts |
| Q2 5:24 | False Start on the Jets (Mason Taylor), 4 yards · pre-snap | +2% TEN +0.8 pts |
| Q2 0:16 | False Start on the Jets (Garrett Wilson), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% TEN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 11:37 | Offensive Holding on the Jets (Kenyon Sadiq), 10 yards | +1% TEN +0.6 pts |
| Q3 6:43 | Illegal Formation on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% TEN +1.1 pts |
| Q3 4:44 | Offensive Holding on the Jets, 9 yards, wiping out the play | +6% TEN +5.6 pts |
| Q4 13:40 | False Start on the Titans, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% NYJ +0.8 pts |
| Q4 9:46 | Delay of Game on the Jets, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% TEN +1.1 pts |
Jets penalties, every game · Titans penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Titans’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 12:10 | The Jets converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 31% expected | +8% NYJ | NYJ: Touchdown |
| 2 | Q2 10:14 | The Jets converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expected | +5% NYJ | NYJ: Field goal |
| 3 | Q2 5:09 | The Jets were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +5% TEN | NYJ: Field goal |
| 4 | Q2 5:03 | The Titans fumbled and the Jets recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% NYJ | TEN: Punt |
| 5 | Q2 2:44 | J. Sanders missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 65 of 90 from 45+ before | +15% TEN | NYJ: End of half |
| 6 | Q2 1:22 | The Titans were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +5% NYJ | TEN: Punt |
| 7 | Q3 8:55 | T. Spears dropped a catchable passDrops · 4 drops on 133 catchable balls before this | +5% NYJ | TEN: Punt |
| 8 | Q3 4:44 | Offensive Holding on the Jets, 9 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +6% TEN | TEN: Punt |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Cedric Gray (TEN LB), out · 0.2 pts
- Jaylen Harrell (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Jets 97% · Titans 3%
- Final margin
- Jets by 13
- Luck in points
- 0.7 for the Jets
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Jets by 12.3
- Replay with same day's form
- Jets 73% · Titans 27% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Jets · 
Titans
More from Week 1 2026
- Patriots at Seahawks SEA 13–10 · replay 77% for the winner
- 49ers vs Rams SF 27–7 · replay 89% for the winner
- Falcons at Steelers PIT 20–13 · replay 88% for the winner
- Ravens at Colts BAL 41–23 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bills at Texans BUF 36–31 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bears at Panthers CHI 59–37 · replay 87% for the winner
- Browns at Jaguars JAX 34–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Saints at Lions DET 31–30 · replay 43% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Bengals CIN 33–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Cardinals at Chargers ARI 26–14 · replay 51% for the winner
- Packers at Vikings MIN 39–22 · replay 46% for the winner
- Dolphins at Raiders LV 27–13 · replay 44% for the winner
- Commanders at Eagles PHI 24–22 · replay 41% for the winner
- Cowboys at Giants NYG 28–20 · replay 15% for the winner
- Broncos at Chiefs KC 31–10 · replay 86% for the winner