luckadjusted

Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026

Bills at Texans, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Texans 36–31, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10. The Texans had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 2.2 points to the Texans.

An off day for the Texans: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bills they would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Bills were 54% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:16 left): the Texans were stopped on 3rd & 18, worth 45 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Buffalo Bills 36
Houston Texans 31

September 13, 2026 · Reliant Stadium · Closing line: Bills −1.5

Luck index +7 Bills about even · −7 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 9, Texans win 1.

  1. 1 BUF 56 HOU 23
  2. 2 BUF 36 HOU 10
  3. 3 BUF 42 HOU 20
  4. 4 BUF 32 HOU 14
  5. 5 BUF 33 HOU 17
  6. 6 BUF 37 HOU 24
  7. 7 BUF 27 HOU 17
  8. 8 BUF 33 HOU 27
  9. 9 BUF 34 HOU 31
  10. 10 BUF 13 HOU 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Texans

Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bills they would win 44% of the time; with this day’s form, 7%.

37 points apart for the Texans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Bills offenseEPA per play gained +0.23 +0.17 better by 0.06
Bills defenseEPA per play allowed +0.17 +0.09 worse by 0.08
Texans offenseEPA per play gained +0.17 +0.05 better by 0.12
Texans defenseEPA per play allowed +0.23 +0.02 worse by 0.21

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 93% of them, Texans 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 5.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+57.6%
Bills by 9–1620.5%
Bills by 1–814.2%
Level after regulation0.8%
Texans by 1–85.0%
Texans by 9–161.5%
Texans by 17+0.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 5. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 0.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • T. Bass, 46 yds made · 81% expected
  • T. Bass, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • T. Bass, 33 yds made · 95% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 58 yds made · 65% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:40 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expectedThe Texans fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +19% BUF HOU: Touchdown
2 Q2 4:13 Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Kamari Lassiter), 46 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1996 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 +15% BUF BUF: Touchdown
3 Q4 12:44 The Bills converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 48% expected +17% BUF BUF: Field goal
4 Q4 3:13 The Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +17% BUF BUF: Touchdown
5 Q4 1:48 The Bills got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · 50% expected to stay out of the defense's hands +30% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q4 1:41 The Bills converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +32% BUF BUF: Touchdown
7 Q4 0:30 The Texans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +18% HOU HOU: Turnover
8 Q4 0:16 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedThe Texans fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +45% BUF –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jayden Higgins (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Tyrell Shavers (BUF WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 51% · Texans 49%

Final margin
Bills by 5
Luck in points
5.1 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 0.1
Replay with same day's form
Bills 93% · Texans 7% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.

Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · Bills · Texans

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