Week 1 2026 · September 13, 2026
Bills at Texans, Week 1 2026: who deserved to win?
The Bills beat the Texans 36–31, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10.
An off day for the Texans: their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bills they would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%. The numbers
Before kickoff the Bills were 54% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 3:13 left): the Bills fumbled and recovered it themselves, worth 16 points of win probability to the Bills. The biggest single swing (Q4, 1:48 left): the Bills got away with an interception-worthy throw.
Final
 Buffalo Bills | 36 |
|---|---|
 Houston Texans | 31 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +13 Bills about even · −13 Texans
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Bills win 9, Texans win 1.
- 1 BUF 47 HOU 14
- 2 BUF 43 HOU 17
- 3 BUF 34 HOU 13
- 4 BUF 48 HOU 30
- 5 BUF 35 HOU 20
- 6 BUF 36 HOU 24
- 7 BUF 41 HOU 32
- 8 BUF 30 HOU 24
- 9 BUF 17 HOU 15
- 10 BUF 13 HOU 19
Your call
Did the Bills earn it, or get lucky?
Our prediction before kickoff
We had the Bills by 0.1, 50% to win. The Bills won by 5: the pick was right. The final margin was 4.9 points from ours; 70% of games like this end further from the forecast than that.
Show as a table
| Outcome | Chance |
|---|---|
| Bills win | 50.4% |
| Texans win | 49.6% |
| Middle 50%: Bills by 8 to Texans by 8 | 50% |
| Middle 90%: Bills by 21 to Texans by 21 | 90% |
| Middle 95%: Bills by 25 to Texans by 25 | 95% |
| Exactly Bills by 3 | 8.4% |
| Exactly Texans by 3 | 8.4% |
| Exactly Bills by 7 | 5.0% |
| Exactly Texans by 7 | 5.0% |
| Exactly Bills by 10 | 3.4% |
Most of the distance between a forecast and a final score is luck: even with both teams’ strength known exactly, one game’s bounces, kicks and calls move the final margin by about ±12 points. This game was played before our forecasts went live, so this one was made afterwards, the same way, from only what was known before kickoff. How our predictions have done
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
An off day for the Texans
Their defense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Bills they would win 45% of the time; with this day’s form, 13%.
Same teams, fresh game
Replay with same day's form
33 points apart for the Texans: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.
| Unit | This game | Usual level | Better or worse than usual |
|---|---|---|---|
| Bills offenseEPA per play gained | +0.23 | +0.17 | better by 0.06 |
| Bills defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.17 | +0.09 | worse by 0.08 |
| Texans offenseEPA per play gained | +0.17 | +0.05 | better by 0.12 |
| Texans defenseEPA per play allowed | +0.23 | +0.02 | worse by 0.21 |
EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.
How 4,000 replays ended
Bills win 87% of them, Texans 13%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 5.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Bills by 17+ | 45.4% |
| Bills by 9–16 | 21.3% |
| Bills by 1–8 | 18.6% |
| Level after regulation | 2.3% |
| Texans by 1–8 | 8.1% |
| Texans by 9–16 | 2.9% |
| Texans by 17+ | 1.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- T. Bass, 46 yds made · 82% expected
- T. Bass, 34 yds made · 94% expected
- T. Bass, 33 yds made · 95% expected
- K. Fairbairn, 58 yds made · 67% expected
Penalties: Bills 10 for 85 yards, Texans 7 for 106 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 10:36 | False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BUF +0.6 pts |
| Q1 7:42 | Offensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% HOU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 15:00 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Bills, 5 yards | +4% HOU +0.6 pts |
| Q2 11:15 | Defensive Holding on the Bills (DeAundre Alford), 5 yards | +1% BUF +0.1 pts |
| Q2 5:03 | Defensive Holding on the Bills (Damar Hamlin), 5 yards | +5% HOU +1.3 pts |
| Q2 4:13 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Kamari Lassiter), 46 yards | +15% BUF +3.6 pts |
| Q2 3:51 | Defensive Holding on the Bills (Davison Igbinosun), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +2% BUF +0.2 pts |
| Q2 1:29 | Offensive Holding on the Texans (George Odum), 10 yards | +1% BUF +0.9 pts |
| Q2 1:03 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bills (Christian Benford), 21 yards | +2% HOU +1.1 pts |
| Q2 0:26 | Offensive Holding on the Bills (Joe Andreessen), 10 yards | +4% HOU +0.9 pts |
| Q3 13:39 | Chop Block on the Texans (David Montgomery), 15 yards, wiping out the play | +8% BUF +2.3 pts |
| Q3 13:19 | Illegal Blindside Block on the Bills (Sam Franklin), 14 yards | +5% HOU +1.0 pts |
| Q3 10:54 | Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +8% HOU +2.0 pts |
| Q3 7:22 | Roughing the Passer on the Texans (Mario Edwards), 15 yards | +3% BUF +1.1 pts |
| Q4 10:22 | Offensive Holding on the Texans, 10 yards | +4% BUF +0.8 pts |
| Q4 0:44 | Defensive Holding on the Bills (Deone Walker), 5 yards | +5% HOU +0.9 pts |
| Q4 0:39 | False Start on the Texans, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% BUF +0.5 pts |
Bills penalties, every game · Texans penalties, every game · All teams, 2026
When it happened
Texans’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 74%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 11:18 | The Bills were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 78% expected | +10% HOU | BUF: Field goal |
| 2 | Q2 4:13 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Texans (Kamari Lassiter), 46 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 1996 snaps before, position avg 1 per 211 | +15% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 3 | Q4 9:28 | The Texans converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +11% HOU | HOU: Field goal |
| 4 | Q4 3:13 | The game turned hereThe Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +16% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 1:48 | The Bills got away with an interception-worthy throwInterceptions · defenses catch 54% of interception-worthy throws | +32% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 1:41 | The Bills converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 30% expected | +18% BUF | BUF: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 0:30 | The Texans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected | +17% HOU | HOU: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 0:16 | The Texans fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +15% BUF | – |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Jayden Higgins (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Tyrell Shavers (BUF WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Bills 45% · Texans 55%
- Final margin
- Bills by 5
- Luck in points
- 6.1 for the Bills
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Texans by 1.1
- Replay with same day's form
- Bills 87% · Texans 13% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting; injuries from snap counts and injury reports.
Methodology and validation · All Week 1 2026 games · 
Bills · 
Texans
More from Week 1 2026
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- 49ers vs Rams SF 27–7 · replay 89% for the winner
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- Ravens at Colts BAL 41–23 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bears at Panthers CHI 59–37 · replay 87% for the winner
- Browns at Jaguars JAX 34–10 · replay 99% for the winner
- Saints at Lions DET 31–30 · replay 43% for the winner
- Jets at Titans NYJ 23–10 · replay 73% for the winner
- Buccaneers at Bengals CIN 33–27 · replay 94% for the winner
- Cardinals at Chargers ARI 26–14 · replay 51% for the winner
- Packers at Vikings MIN 39–22 · replay 46% for the winner
- Dolphins at Raiders LV 27–13 · replay 44% for the winner
- Commanders at Eagles PHI 24–22 · replay 41% for the winner
- Cowboys at Giants NYG 28–20 · replay 15% for the winner
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