AFC South
Houston Texans: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Texans have won 53.5 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 48.4. Luck added 5.1 wins. Their luckiest season was 2025 (+3.8 wins), the unluckiest 2020 (−2.6).
2026: 0–2 so far, replay wins 0.6 (−0.6 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, pts per game | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 0–2 | 0.6 | −0.6 | 0–1 | +0.05 | – |
| 2025 | 12–5 | 8.2 | +3.8 | 7–5 | −0.82 | 1–1 |
| 2024 | 10–7 | 9.5 | +0.5 | 7–5 | +0.29 | 1–1 |
| 2023 | 10–7 | 8.8 | +1.2 | 7–3 | −0.93 | 1–1 |
| 2022 | 3–13–1 | 3.1 | +0.4 | 3–6–1 | +0.32 | – |
| 2021 | 4–13 | 3.4 | +0.6 | 0–4 | −0.49 | – |
| 2020 | 4–12 | 6.6 | −2.6 | 2–8 | −0.61 | – |
| 2019 | 10–6 | 8.7 | +1.3 | 8–3 | +1.51 | 1–1 |
Luckiest wins
Wins the Texans take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Week 16 | @ Buccaneers | W 23–20 | 8% | +92 |
| 2025 Week 14 | @ Chiefs | W 20–10 | 11% | +89 |
| 2021 Week 11 | @ Titans | W 22–13 | 13% | +87 |
| 2021 Week 16 | vs Chargers | W 41–29 | 24% | +76 |
| 2022 Week 18 | @ Colts | W 32–31 | 25% | +75 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses the Texans would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Week 7 | @ Colts | L 23–30 | 88% | −88 |
| 2019 Week 4 | vs Panthers | L 10–16 | 78% | −78 |
| 2020 Week 16 | vs Bengals | L 31–37 | 63% | −63 |
| 2023 Week 5 | @ Falcons | L 19–21 | 59% | −59 |
| 2020 Week 17 | vs Titans | L 38–41 | 59% | −59 |
