AFC South
Houston Texans: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Texans have won 53.5 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 49.0. Luck added 4.5 wins. Their luckiest season was 2025 (+3.3 wins), the unluckiest 2020 (−2.7).
2026: 3–5 so far, replay wins 4.1 (−1.1 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 3–5 | 4.1 | −1.1 | 1–4 | −0.12 | – |
| 2025 | 12–5 | 8.7 | +3.3 | 7–5 | +0.42 | 1–1 |
| 2024 | 10–7 | 10.0 | 0.0 | 7–5 | −0.15 | 1–1 |
| 2023 | 10–7 | 8.5 | +1.5 | 7–3 | −0.36 | 1–1 |
| 2022 | 3–13–1 | 2.8 | +0.7 | 3–6–1 | −0.02 | – |
| 2021 | 4–13 | 3.3 | +0.7 | 0–4 | −0.09 | – |
| 2020 | 4–12 | 6.7 | −2.7 | 2–8 | −0.18 | – |
| 2019 | 10–6 | 8.9 | +1.1 | 8–3 | +0.95 | 1–1 |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | +3.3 | +0.12 | +0.95 | +0.79 | +0.21 | +0.38 | −0.16 |
| 2024 | 0.0 | −0.20 | −1.40 | +0.57 | −0.08 | −0.05 | +0.14 |
| 2023 | +1.5 | +0.33 | +0.47 | +0.90 | −0.18 | −0.69 | −0.17 |
| 2022 | +0.7 | −0.49 | +0.43 | +0.53 | −0.01 | +0.38 | −0.48 |
| 2021 | +0.7 | −0.19 | +0.14 | 0.00 | −0.04 | −0.75 | −0.06 |
| 2020 | −2.7 | −0.44 | +0.31 | 0.00 | −0.09 | −0.21 | −0.28 |
| 2019 | +1.1 | +0.40 | −0.56 | 0.00 | +0.47 | −0.33 | +0.11 |
| Since 2019 | +4.5 | −0.48 | +0.34 | +2.79 | +0.29 | −1.27 | −0.89 |
Are the Texans lucky?
Yes. Since 2019 the Texans have won 53.5 regular-season games from play worth 49.0: +4.5 wins of luck, the 8th-most of 32 teams.
Why have the Texans been so lucky?
Most of it came from drops (+2.8 wins) and kicks (+0.3 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 34–34–1 since 2019, where the replays give them 32.3 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Texans’ luckiest season?
2025: 12–5 from play worth 8.7 wins, +3.3 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2020: 4–12 from play worth 6.7 (−2.7).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Texans’ luckiest wins
Wins the Texans take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Week 16 | @ Buccaneers | W 23–20 | 7% | +93 |
| 2021 Week 11 | @ Titans | W 22–13 | 11% | +89 |
| 2025 Week 14 | @ Chiefs | W 20–10 | 21% | +79 |
| 2025 Week 13 | @ Colts | W 20–16 | 22% | +78 |
| 2021 Week 16 | vs Chargers | W 41–29 | 23% | +77 |
The Texans’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Texans would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Week 7 | @ Colts | L 23–30 | 88% | −88 |
| 2019 Week 4 | vs Panthers | L 10–16 | 81% | −81 |
| 2026 Week 3 | @ Colts | L 17–19 | 75% | −75 |
| 2020 Week 16 | vs Bengals | L 31–37 | 64% | −64 |
| 2020 Week 17 | vs Titans | L 38–41 | 60% | −60 |
