luckadjusted

Week 17 2020 · January 3, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Texans, Week 17 2020: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Texans 41–38, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Titans win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 3.1 points to the Titans.

Before kickoff the Titans were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:42 left): the Texans converted 3rd & 13, worth 25 points of win probability to the Texans.

Final

Tennessee Titans 41
Houston Texans 38

January 3, 2021 · NRG Stadium · Closing line: Titans −7

Luck index +59 Titans lucky · −59 Texans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 4, Texans win 6.

  1. 1 TEN 38 HOU 16
  2. 2 TEN 48 HOU 35
  3. 3 TEN 37 HOU 30
  4. 4 TEN 27 HOU 24
  5. 5 TEN 10 HOU 13
  6. 6 TEN 24 HOU 30
  7. 7 TEN 26 HOU 34
  8. 8 TEN 17 HOU 30
  9. 9 TEN 37 HOU 55
  10. 10 TEN 20 HOU 47

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 41% of them, Texans 59%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+7.8%
Titans by 9–1612.9%
Titans by 1–819.1%
Level after regulation3.1%
Texans by 1–825.0%
Texans by 9–1615.8%
Texans by 17+16.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Texans by 1.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • S. Sloman, 47 yds made · 77% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 24 yds made · 98% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • K. Fairbairn, 51 yds made · 70% expected
  • S. Sloman, 37 yds made · 91% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Texans’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 73%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Texans were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:43 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 41% expected +11% TEN HOU: Field goal
2 Q4 13:17 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +12% HOU TEN: Touchdown
3 Q4 1:53 Illegal Formation on the Titans, 4 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +14% HOU HOU: Field goal
4 Q4 1:42 Offensive Holding on the Texans (Pharaoh Brown), 9 yardsJudgment calls · 7 flags in 670 snaps before, position avg 1 per 276Illegal Formation on the Texans, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +20% TEN TEN: Field goal
5 Q4 0:42 The Texans converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +25% HOU HOU: Field goal
6 Q4 0:26 The Texans were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +10% TEN HOU: Field goal
7 Q4 0:22 K. Fairbairn made 51-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 10 of 18 from 45+ before +21% HOU –
8 Q4 0:04 S. Sloman made 37-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him +15% TEN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Laremy Tunsil (HOU T), out · 1.1 pts
  • Will Fuller (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Bradley Roby (HOU CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Randall Cobb (HOU WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Whitney Mercilus (HOU OLB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Justin Reid (HOU S), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Whitney Mercilus (HOU LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Eric Murray (HOU S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tytus Howard (HOU G/T), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Duke Johnson (HOU RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Breon Borders (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Stephen Gostkowski (TEN K), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Ty Sambrailo (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jayon Brown (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Derick Roberson (TEN OLB), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 63% · Texans 37%

Final margin
Titans by 3
Luck in points
4.1 for the Titans
Luck-adjusted margin
Texans by 1.1
Replay with same day's form
Titans 41% · Texans 59% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2020 games · Titans · Texans

More from Week 17 2020