luckadjusted

Week 17 2020 · January 3, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Jaguars at Colts, Week 17 2020: who deserved to win?

The Colts beat the Jaguars 28–14, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Colts win 10 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 6.2 points to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Colts were 87% favorites.

Final

Jacksonville Jaguars 14
Indianapolis Colts 28

January 3, 2021 · Lucas Oil Stadium · Closing line: Colts −15.5

Luck index +3 Colts about even · −3 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Jaguars win 0, Colts win 10.

  1. 1 JAX 34 IND 37
  2. 2 JAX 20 IND 27
  3. 3 JAX 27 IND 37
  4. 4 JAX 13 IND 27
  5. 5 JAX 16 IND 33
  6. 6 JAX 20 IND 41
  7. 7 JAX 9 IND 33
  8. 8 JAX 10 IND 37
  9. 9 JAX 17 IND 48
  10. 10 JAX 13 IND 54

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Jaguars win 3% of them, Colts 97%. The line is what actually happened: Colts by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Jaguars by 17+0.1%
Jaguars by 9–160.5%
Jaguars by 1–81.8%
Level after regulation0.4%
Colts by 1–86.8%
Colts by 9–1615.8%
Colts by 17+74.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Colts by 14. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Colts by 17.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Blankenship, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 24 yds made · 99% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 56 yds missed · 65% expected
  • R. Blankenship, 49 yds missed · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Colts’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Colts were ahead in it, below while the Jaguars were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:20 The Colts converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% IND IND: Touchdown
2 Q2 13:06 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +7% IND JAX: Punt
3 Q2 6:27 The Jaguars were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected +4% IND JAX: Touchdown
4 Q3 8:26 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +5% JAX JAX: Touchdown
5 Q3 5:04 The Colts were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +4% JAX IND: Punt
6 Q3 0:46 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +4% JAX JAX: Punt
7 Q4 8:36 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% IND JAX: Punt
8 Q4 7:51 Lowering the Head to Initiate Contact on the Jaguars, 15 yardsJudgment calls +5% IND IND: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Anthony Castonzo (IND T), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Khari Willis (IND S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Rock Ya-Sin (IND CB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Luq Barcoo (JAX CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Brandon Linder (JAX OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • C.J. Henderson (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Sidney Jones (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • James Robinson (JAX RB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Daniel Thomas (JAX S), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Jaguars 0% · Colts 100%

Final margin
Colts by 14
Luck in points
3.3 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Colts by 17.3
Replay with same day's form
Jaguars 3% · Colts 97% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2020 games · Jaguars · Colts

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