luckadjusted

Week 17 2020 · January 3, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Steelers at Browns, Week 17 2020: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Steelers 24–22 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 3.6 points to the Steelers.

Before kickoff the Browns were 78% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 10:19 left): the Steelers converted 3rd & 7, worth 14 points of win probability to the Steelers.

Final

Pittsburgh Steelers 22
Cleveland Browns 24

January 3, 2021 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −10.5

Luck index +29 Browns lucky · −29 Steelers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Steelers win 3, Browns win 7.

  1. 1 PIT 22 CLE 7
  2. 2 PIT 13 CLE 6
  3. 3 PIT 12 CLE 10
  4. 4 PIT 13 CLE 15
  5. 5 PIT 26 CLE 29
  6. 6 PIT 10 CLE 17
  7. 7 PIT 23 CLE 33
  8. 8 PIT 14 CLE 28
  9. 9 PIT 0 CLE 17
  10. 10 PIT 13 CLE 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Steelers win 29% of them, Browns 71%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 2.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Steelers by 17+3.3%
Steelers by 9–166.8%
Steelers by 1–814.5%
Level after regulation4.5%
Browns by 1–828.9%
Browns by 9–1622.4%
Browns by 17+19.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 2. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Steelers by 0.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Parkey, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • M. Wright, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • M. Wright, 46 yds made · 75% expected
  • M. Wright, 46 yds made · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Steelers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 6:54 The Steelers converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +9% PIT PIT: Field goal
2 Q2 1:42 The Steelers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% PIT PIT: Field goal
3 Q3 14:29 The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +6% CLE CLE: Punt
4 Q3 10:19 The Steelers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +14% PIT PIT: Field goal
5 Q3 6:34 The Browns converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +7% CLE CLE: Touchdown
6 Q3 1:42 The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 28% expected +7% CLE PIT: Touchdown
7 Q4 10:13 The Steelers converted 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +6% PIT PIT: Touchdown
8 Q4 1:23 The Steelers’ two-point try failed3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +13% CLE –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Denzel Ward (CLE CB), out (IR) · 1.2 pts
  • Andrew Sendejo (CLE S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • B.J. Goodson (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kevin Johnson (CLE CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Harrison Bryant (CLE TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Malcolm Smith (CLE LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Ben Roethlisberger (PIT QB), out, replaced by m.rudolph · 4.0 pts
  • Joe Haden (PIT CB), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Eric Ebron (PIT TE), out (IR) · 1.0 pts
  • Maurkice Pouncey (PIT C), out · 0.8 pts
  • Cameron Heyward (PIT DT), out · 0.8 pts
  • T.J. Watt (PIT LB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Terrell Edmunds (PIT S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Matt Feiler (PIT G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Chris Boswell (PIT K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Bud Dupree (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Robert Spillane (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Matt Feiler (PIT OT), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Steelers 3% · Browns 97%

Final margin
Browns by 2
Luck in points
2.8 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Steelers by 0.8
Replay with same day's form
Steelers 29% · Browns 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 17 2020 games · Steelers · Browns

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