2020 season · final
Pittsburgh Steelers, 2020: game by game
The Steelers went 12–4 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.5 wins. Luck added 2.5: the 4th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–2.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.5.
Every game
How often the Steelers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Giants | W 26–16 | 29% | +71 |
| Week 2 | vs Broncos | W 26–21 | 62% | +38 |
| Week 3 | vs Texans | W 28–21 | 71% | +29 |
| Week 5 | vs Eagles | W 38–29 | 72% | +28 |
| Week 6 | vs Browns | W 38–7 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 7 | @ Titans | W 27–24 | 63% | +37 |
| Week 8 | @ Ravens | W 28–24 | 35% | +65 |
| Week 9 | @ Cowboys | W 24–19 | 78% | +22 |
| Week 10 | vs Bengals | W 36–10 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 11 | @ Jaguars | W 27–3 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 12 | vs Ravens | W 19–14 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 13 | vs Washington | L 17–23 | 69% | −69 |
| Week 14 | @ Bills | L 15–26 | 24% | −24 |
| Week 15 | @ Bengals | L 17–27 | 15% | −15 |
| Week 16 | vs Colts | W 28–24 | 54% | +46 |
| Week 17 | @ Browns | L 22–24 | 29% | −29 |
| Wild Card | vs Browns | L 37–48 | 49% | −49 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Steelers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.53 | +14.5 |
| Injuries | +0.33 | +18.1 |
| Judgment calls | +0.32 | +8.8 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.20 | +6.2 |
| Rest | −0.08 | −2.8 |
| Kicks | −0.08 | +4.8 |