Week 14 2020 · December 13, 2020
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Steelers at Bills, Week 14 2020: who deserved to win?
The Bills beat the Steelers 26–15, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10. The Steelers had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Steelers.
Before kickoff the Bills were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 1:02 left): Return touchdown by the Bills, worth 27 points of win probability to the Bills.
Final
 Pittsburgh Steelers | 15 |
|---|---|
 Buffalo Bills | 26 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +24 Bills about even · −24 Steelers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Steelers win 2, Bills win 8.
- 1 PIT 22 BUF 9
- 2 PIT 16 BUF 13
- 3 PIT 20 BUF 22
- 4 PIT 14 BUF 19
- 5 PIT 27 BUF 34
- 6 PIT 20 BUF 30
- 7 PIT 27 BUF 40
- 8 PIT 17 BUF 34
- 9 PIT 16 BUF 37
- 10 PIT 27 BUF 55
Your call
Did the Bills earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Steelers win 24% of them, Bills 76%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 11.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Steelers by 17+ | 2.7% |
| Steelers by 9–16 | 6.9% |
| Steelers by 1–8 | 12.1% |
| Level after regulation | 2.2% |
| Bills by 1–8 | 25.3% |
| Bills by 9–16 | 19.5% |
| Bills by 17+ | 31.3% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- T. Bass, 34 yds made · 91% expected
- T. Bass, 23 yds made · 97% expected
- Extra point missed · 94% expected
Penalties: Steelers 3 for 55 yards, Bills 7 for 48 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 14:10 | Offensive Holding on the Bills (Andre Smith), 10 yards | +3% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q1 13:28 | False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% PIT +0.7 pts |
| Q1 1:08 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Steelers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% BUF +1.0 pts |
| Q2 14:34 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bills (Tre'Davious White), 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PIT +0.6 pts |
| Q2 2:10 | Roughing the Passer on the Steelers, 15 yards, wiping out the play | +5% PIT +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:02 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% PIT +0.5 pts |
| Q3 9:18 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Bills (Josh Norman), 10 yards | +2% PIT +0.9 pts |
| Q4 12:33 | Defensive Holding on the Bills (Matt Milano), 3 yards | 0% PIT +0.7 pts |
| Q4 9:08 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Steelers, 35 yards | +3% BUF +3.8 pts |
| Q4 7:11 | Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +3% PIT +3.7 pts |
Steelers penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2020
When it happened
Bills’ chance of winning
As low as 31% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 5:33 | The Steelers converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +5% PIT | PIT: Punt |
| 2 | Q1 2:28 | The Steelers were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected | +4% BUF | PIT: Punt |
| 3 | Q2 9:42 | The Bills fumbled and the Steelers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +6% PIT | BUF: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 9:36 | The Steelers fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +7% PIT | PIT: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q2 8:14 | The Bills fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +5% BUF | BUF: Punt |
| 6 | Q2 4:14 | The Bills converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected | +4% BUF | BUF: Field goal |
| 7 | Q2 2:10 | Roughing the Passer on the Steelers, 15 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +5% PIT | BUF: Field goal |
| 8 | Q2 1:02 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bills, 5 yardsPre-snap flagsReturn touchdown by the BillsSpecial teams | +27% BUF | PIT: Opp touchdown |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- John Brown (BUF WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Cody Ford (BUF T), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
- Cameron Lewis (BUF DB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Tyler Kroft (BUF TE), out · 0.2 pts
- Joe Haden (PIT CB), out · 1.1 pts
- Vince Williams (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Bud Dupree (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Robert Spillane (PIT LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Steelers 0% · Bills 100%
- Final margin
- Bills by 11
- Luck in points
- 1.4 for the Steelers
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bills by 12.4
- Replay with same day's form
- Steelers 24% · Bills 76% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2020 games · 
Steelers · 
Bills
More from Week 14 2020
- Patriots at Rams LA 24–3 · replay 78% for the winner
- Cardinals at Giants ARI 26–7 · replay 96% for the winner
- Cowboys at Bengals DAL 30–7 · replay 90% for the winner
- Broncos at Panthers DEN 32–27 · replay 59% for the winner
- Texans at Bears CHI 36–7 · replay 88% for the winner
- Chiefs at Dolphins KC 33–27 · replay 65% for the winner
- Vikings at Buccaneers TB 26–14 · replay 82% for the winner
- Titans at Jaguars TEN 31–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Colts at Raiders IND 44–27 · replay 66% for the winner
- Jets at Seahawks SEA 40–3 · replay 99% for the winner
- Falcons at Chargers LAC 20–17 · replay 23% for the winner
- Packers at Lions GB 31–24 · replay 87% for the winner
- Saints at Eagles PHI 24–21 · replay 29% for the winner
- Washington vs 49ers WAS 23–15 · replay 28% for the winner
- Ravens at Browns BAL 47–42 · replay 65% for the winner