luckadjusted

Week 14 2020 · December 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Bengals, Week 14 2020: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Bengals 30–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:28 left): Return touchdown by the Cowboys, worth 46 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 30
Cincinnati Bengals 7

December 13, 2020 · Paul Brown Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −3

Luck index +10 Cowboys about even · −10 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 9, Bengals win 1.

  1. 1 DAL 41 CIN 13
  2. 2 DAL 22 CIN 0
  3. 3 DAL 27 CIN 10
  4. 4 DAL 20 CIN 6
  5. 5 DAL 23 CIN 10
  6. 6 DAL 16 CIN 6
  7. 7 DAL 20 CIN 13
  8. 8 DAL 23 CIN 17
  9. 9 DAL 19 CIN 16
  10. 10 DAL 19 CIN 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 90% of them, Bengals 10%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 23.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+41.8%
Cowboys by 9–1627.2%
Cowboys by 1–820.1%
Level after regulation1.3%
Bengals by 1–87.1%
Bengals by 9–162.1%
Bengals by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 23. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 13.8.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Zuerlein, 34 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 20 yds made · 98% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 55 yds made · 61% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 57%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:30 The Bengals fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% DAL CIN: Opp touchdown
2 Q1 13:42 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +7% DAL DAL: Field goal
3 Q1 11:47 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +5% CIN DAL: Field goal
4 Q1 6:28 The Bengals fumbled and the Cowboys recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the CowboysSpecial teams +46% DAL CIN: Turnover
5 Q1 0:09 The Bengals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +6% DAL CIN: Turnover
6 Q2 11:40 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 143rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +7% DAL DAL: Touchdown
7 Q2 0:11 The Bengals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 29% expected +5% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q3 11:38 G. Zuerlein made 20-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +7% CIN DAL: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Joe Burrow (CIN QB), out (IR), replaced by b.allen · 4.5 pts
  • Jonah Williams (CIN OT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Joe Mixon (CIN HB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Randy Bullock (CIN K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Michael Jordan (CIN G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Trevon Diggs (DAL CB), out (IR) · 1.1 pts
  • Zack Martin (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Anthony Brown (DAL CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Cameron Erving (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Donovan Wilson (DAL S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Anthony Brown (DAL DB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Cameron Erving (DAL G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Chris Jones (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 100% · Bengals 0%

Final margin
Cowboys by 23
Luck in points
9.2 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 13.8
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 90% · Bengals 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2020 games · Cowboys · Bengals

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