luckadjusted

Week 14 2020 · December 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at Giants, Week 14 2020: who deserved to win?

The Cardinals beat the Giants 26–7, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cardinals win 10 of 10.

An off day for the Giants: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:49 left): the Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 1, worth 13 points of win probability to the Giants.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 26
New York Giants 7

December 13, 2020 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −3

Luck index +4 Cardinals about even · −4 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 10, Giants win 0.

  1. 1 ARI 37 NYG 3
  2. 2 ARI 27 NYG 0
  3. 3 ARI 40 NYG 16
  4. 4 ARI 27 NYG 6
  5. 5 ARI 34 NYG 17
  6. 6 ARI 24 NYG 8
  7. 7 ARI 30 NYG 17
  8. 8 ARI 16 NYG 6
  9. 9 ARI 13 NYG 6
  10. 10 ARI 23 NYG 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Giants

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Cardinals they would win 36% of the time; with this day’s form, 4%.

32 points apart for the Giants: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Cardinals offenseEPA per play gained +0.10 +0.14 worse by 0.04
Cardinals defenseEPA per play allowed −0.10 +0.14 better by 0.24
Giants offenseEPA per play gained −0.10 +0.08 worse by 0.17
Giants defenseEPA per play allowed +0.10 +0.13 better by 0.03

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 96% of them, Giants 4%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cardinals by 19.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+70.0%
Cardinals by 9–1617.9%
Cardinals by 1–88.0%
Level after regulation0.9%
Giants by 1–82.8%
Giants by 9–160.4%
Giants by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cardinals by 19. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 12.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Nugent, 34 yds made · 91% expected
  • M. Nugent, 37 yds made · 88% expected
  • M. Nugent, 34 yds made · 91% expected
  • M. Nugent, 30 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 59%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:08 The Giants fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% ARI NYG: Punt
2 Q1 10:49 The Cardinals were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +13% NYG ARI: Field goal
3 Q1 9:23 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +7% ARI NYG: Punt
4 Q2 14:16 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +4% ARI NYG: Punt
5 Q2 12:35 The Cardinals converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +4% ARI ARI: Field goal
6 Q2 8:24 The Giants fumbled and the Cardinals recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% ARI NYG: Punt
7 Q2 6:59 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +5% ARI ARI: Touchdown
8 Q2 1:24 The Giants fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +4% NYG NYG: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ryan Lewis (NYG DB), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Devonta Freeman (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Darnay Holmes (NYG CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Kyler Fackrell (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jalen Thompson (ARI S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Corey Peters (ARI DL), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Zane Gonzalez (ARI K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Darrell Daniels (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 99% · Giants 1%

Final margin
Cardinals by 19
Luck in points
6.5 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 12.5
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 96% · Giants 4% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2020 games · Cardinals · Giants

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