luckadjusted

Week 14 2020 · December 13, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Jaguars, Week 14 2020: who deserved to win?

The Titans beat the Jaguars 31–10, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10. The Jaguars had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.5 points to the Jaguars.

Before kickoff the Titans were 71% favorites.

Final

Tennessee Titans 31
Jacksonville Jaguars 10

December 13, 2020 · TIAA Bank Stadium · Closing line: Titans −7.5

Luck index +10 Titans about even · −10 Jaguars

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 9, Jaguars win 1.

  1. 1 TEN 40 JAX 6
  2. 2 TEN 41 JAX 14
  3. 3 TEN 31 JAX 9
  4. 4 TEN 31 JAX 13
  5. 5 TEN 31 JAX 17
  6. 6 TEN 34 JAX 24
  7. 7 TEN 35 JAX 28
  8. 8 TEN 27 JAX 23
  9. 9 TEN 35 JAX 33
  10. 10 TEN 20 JAX 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 90% of them, Jaguars 10%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Titans by 21.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+51.3%
Titans by 9–1620.7%
Titans by 1–816.3%
Level after regulation1.8%
Jaguars by 1–86.6%
Jaguars by 9–162.7%
Jaguars by 17+0.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Titans by 21. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 26.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • A. Rosas, 53 yds blocked · 65% expected
  • A. Rosas, 53 yds made · 64% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 53 yds made · 67% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Jaguars’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Jaguars were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 11:56 The Jaguars converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +6% JAX JAX: Missed field goal
2 Q1 9:21 A. Rosas had a 53-yard field goal blockedKicks · 65% expected for him, 3 of 7 from 45+ before +8% TEN JAX: Punt
3 Q1 5:05 The Titans converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 62% expected +7% TEN TEN: Punt
4 Q2 15:00 The Titans converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +6% TEN TEN: Turnover on downs
5 Q2 9:51 The Titans were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +7% JAX TEN: Turnover
6 Q2 4:32 The Titans fumbled and the Jaguars recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% JAX TEN: Touchdown
7 Q2 3:36 The Jaguars were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% TEN JAX: Field goal
8 Q2 0:53 The Titans converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +7% TEN TEN: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Luq Barcoo (JAX CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Brandon Linder (JAX OL), out · 0.4 pts
  • Andrew Norwell (JAX OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • C.J. Henderson (JAX CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Josh Lambo (JAX K), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (TEN DE), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Kenny Vaccaro (TEN DB), out · 0.7 pts
  • Breon Borders (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jadeveon Clowney (TEN OLB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Kenny Vaccaro (TEN S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Ty Sambrailo (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jayon Brown (TEN LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 100% · Jaguars 0%

Final margin
Titans by 21
Luck in points
5.0 for the Jaguars
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 26.0
Replay with same day's form
Titans 90% · Jaguars 10% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 14 2020 games · Titans · Jaguars

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