2020 season · final
Tennessee Titans, 2020: game by game
The Titans went 11–5 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.8 wins. Luck added 1.2: the 10th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–2.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.2.
Every game
How often the Titans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Broncos | W 16–14 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 2 | vs Jaguars | W 33–30 | 68% | +32 |
| Week 3 | @ Vikings | W 31–30 | 40% | +60 |
| Week 5 | vs Bills | W 42–16 | 49% | +51 |
| Week 6 | vs Texans | W 42–36 | 56% | +44 |
| Week 7 | vs Steelers | L 24–27 | 37% | −37 |
| Week 8 | @ Bengals | L 20–31 | 92% | −92 |
| Week 9 | vs Bears | W 24–17 | 88% | +12 |
| Week 10 | vs Colts | L 17–34 | 35% | −35 |
| Week 11 | @ Ravens | W 30–24 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 12 | @ Colts | W 45–26 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 13 | vs Browns | L 35–41 | 36% | −36 |
| Week 14 | @ Jaguars | W 31–10 | 91% | +9 |
| Week 15 | vs Lions | W 46–25 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 16 | @ Packers | L 14–40 | 5% | −5 |
| Week 17 | @ Texans | W 41–38 | 40% | +60 |
| Wild Card | vs Ravens | L 13–20 | 21% | −21 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Titans’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Judgment calls | +0.34 | +2.8 |
| Rest | +0.03 | +1.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.04 | −6.8 |
| Injuries | −0.08 | −2.4 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.12 | +2.5 |
| Kicks | −0.31 | −10.5 |