luckadjusted

2020 season · final

Tennessee Titans, 2020: game by game

The Titans went 11–5 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.7 wins. Luck added 1.3: the 10th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–2.

Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.3.

Every game

How often the Titans win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

WeekGameResultWins the replayLuck index
Week 1 @ Broncos W 16–14 90% +10
Week 2 vs Jaguars W 33–30 67% +34
Week 3 @ Vikings W 31–30 40% +60
Week 5 vs Bills W 42–16 50% +50
Week 6 vs Texans W 42–36 55% +45
Week 7 vs Steelers L 24–27 37% −37
Week 8 @ Bengals L 20–31 91% −91
Week 9 vs Bears W 24–17 87% +13
Week 10 vs Colts L 17–34 33% −33
Week 11 @ Ravens W 30–24 75% +25
Week 12 @ Colts W 45–26 87% +13
Week 13 vs Browns L 35–41 35% −35
Week 14 @ Jaguars W 31–10 90% +10
Week 15 vs Lions W 46–25 84% +16
Week 16 @ Packers L 14–40 5% −5
Week 17 @ Texans W 41–38 41% +59
Wild Card vs Ravens L 13–20 27% −27

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Titans’ favor.

KindPointsPer game
Judgment calls+3.2+0.20
Fumble bounces+1.6+0.10
Rest+1.2+0.07
Injuries−3.3−0.20
3rd & 4th downs−5.0−0.31
Kicks−10.5−0.65