luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2020 · November 1, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Bengals, Week 8 2020: who deserved to win?

The Bengals beat the Titans 31–20, a result the replays rarely give: with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: kicks alone were worth 11 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Titans were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:36 left): the Bengals converted 4th & 5, worth 12 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Tennessee Titans 20
Cincinnati Bengals 31

November 1, 2020 · Paul Brown Stadium · Closing line: Titans −7.5

Luck index +92 Bengals very lucky · −92 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 9, Bengals win 1.

  1. 1 TEN 44 CIN 13
  2. 2 TEN 37 CIN 13
  3. 3 TEN 41 CIN 21
  4. 4 TEN 38 CIN 23
  5. 5 TEN 27 CIN 14
  6. 6 TEN 41 CIN 30
  7. 7 TEN 30 CIN 22
  8. 8 TEN 35 CIN 28
  9. 9 TEN 20 CIN 17
  10. 10 TEN 17 CIN 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 92% of them, Bengals 8%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+49.7%
Titans by 9–1623.5%
Titans by 1–818.7%
Level after regulation1.6%
Bengals by 1–84.4%
Bengals by 9–161.7%
Bengals by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +10.1 points to the Bengals: the final margin was Bengals by 11, without the luck Bengals by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 33 yds made · 92% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 53 yds missed · 54% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Titans 7 for 68 yards, Bengals 7 for 45 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:56 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.5 pts
Q1 4:25 Defensive Holding on the Titans (Rashaan Evans), 5 yards +1% CIN +0.4 pts
Q2 12:07 False Start on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.8 pts
Q2 10:36 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Johnathan Joseph), 22 yards +5% CIN +1.9 pts
Q2 9:26 Horse Collar Tackle on the Bengals, 15 yards +4% TEN +1.8 pts
Q2 4:38 Defensive Offside on the Titans (Vic Beasley), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.1 pts
Q2 2:04 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Titans (Vic Beasley), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CIN +0.6 pts
Q3 12:28 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yards +7% CIN +1.8 pts
Q3 6:38 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bengals (Khalid Kareem), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% TEN +1.3 pts
Q3 0:27 Unnecessary Roughness on the Titans (Kenny Vaccaro), 15 yards +1% CIN +1.8 pts
Q4 15:00 False Start on the Bengals (A.J. Green), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% TEN +0.7 pts
Q4 6:05 Defensive Offside on the Bengals (Carl Lawson), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +3% TEN +3.4 pts
Q4 3:06 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans, 6 yards, wiping out the play +3% CIN +4.9 pts
Q4 0:23 Delay of Game on the Bengals, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% TEN +0.2 pts

Titans penalties, every game · Bengals penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:56 The Bengals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% CIN CIN: Field goal
2 Q1 7:48 The Titans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +8% TEN TEN: Turnover
3 Q1 4:20 The Bengals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CIN CIN: Punt
4 Q1 0:30 S. Gostkowski missed a 53-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 6 of 9 from 45+ before +9% CIN TEN: Touchdown
5 Q2 13:34 The Bengals converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +6% CIN CIN: Touchdown
6 Q2 10:36 Defensive Pass Interference on the Titans (Johnathan Joseph), 22 yardsJudgment calls · 1 flag in 935 snaps before, position avg 1 per 237 +5% CIN CIN: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:36 The Bengals converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +12% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q3 12:28 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% CIN CIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sam Hubbard (CIN DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Trey Hopkins (CIN C), out · 0.4 pts
  • D.J. Reader (CIN DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jonah Williams (CIN OT), out · 0.4 pts
  • C.J. Uzomah (CIN TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Joe Mixon (CIN HB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Michael Jordan (CIN G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Bobby Hart (CIN OT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 51% · Bengals 49%

Final margin
Bengals by 11
Luck in points
10.1 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Bengals by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Titans 92% · Bengals 8% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2020 games · Titans · Bengals

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