luckadjusted

Week 8 2020 · November 1, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Titans at Bengals, Week 8 2020: who deserved to win?

The Bengals stole one. They beat the Titans 31–20, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Titans win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 9.5 points to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Titans were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 2:36 left): the Bengals converted 4th & 5, worth 12 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final

Tennessee Titans 20
Cincinnati Bengals 31

November 1, 2020 · Paul Brown Stadium · Closing line: Titans −7.5

Luck index +91 Bengals very lucky · −91 Titans

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Titans win 9, Bengals win 1.

  1. 1 TEN 45 CIN 16
  2. 2 TEN 51 CIN 28
  3. 3 TEN 27 CIN 9
  4. 4 TEN 38 CIN 22
  5. 5 TEN 37 CIN 24
  6. 6 TEN 21 CIN 12
  7. 7 TEN 40 CIN 33
  8. 8 TEN 24 CIN 20
  9. 9 TEN 23 CIN 21
  10. 10 TEN 24 CIN 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Titans win 91% of them, Bengals 9%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bengals by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Titans by 17+49.6%
Titans by 9–1623.4%
Titans by 1–817.9%
Level after regulation1.8%
Bengals by 1–85.2%
Bengals by 9–161.7%
Bengals by 17+0.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bengals by 11. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Titans by 3.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • R. Bullock, 33 yds made · 92% expected
  • S. Gostkowski, 53 yds missed · 54% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 44% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Titans were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:56 The Bengals converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +10% CIN CIN: Field goal
2 Q1 7:48 The Titans converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +9% TEN TEN: Turnover
3 Q1 5:49 The Titans converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +7% TEN TEN: Turnover
4 Q1 4:20 The Bengals fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% CIN CIN: Punt
5 Q1 0:30 S. Gostkowski missed 53-yard field goalKicks · 54% expected for him, 6 of 9 from 45+ before +9% CIN TEN: Touchdown
6 Q2 6:06 The Titans converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +7% TEN TEN: Touchdown
7 Q2 2:36 The Bengals converted 4th & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +12% CIN CIN: Touchdown
8 Q3 12:28 Offensive Holding on the Titans, 10 yardsJudgment calls +7% CIN CIN: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sam Hubbard (CIN DE), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Trey Hopkins (CIN C), out · 0.4 pts
  • D.J. Reader (CIN DT), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jonah Williams (CIN OT), out · 0.4 pts
  • C.J. Uzomah (CIN TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Joe Mixon (CIN HB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Michael Jordan (CIN G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Bobby Hart (CIN OT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Taylor Lewan (TEN T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Adoree' Jackson (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Kristian Fulton (TEN CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Titans 73% · Bengals 27%

Final margin
Bengals by 11
Luck in points
14.5 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Titans by 3.5
Replay with same day's form
Titans 91% · Bengals 9% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2020 games · Titans · Bengals

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