luckadjusted

Week 8 2020 · November 1, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Rams at Dolphins, Week 8 2020: who deserved to win?

The Dolphins stole one. They beat the Rams 28–17, but replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Rams win 9 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 4.4 points to the Dolphins.

The Dolphins won on an off day: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 40% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%. The numbers

Before kickoff the Rams were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 10:17 left): Return touchdown by the Dolphins, worth 50 points of win probability to the Dolphins.

Final

Los Angeles Rams 17
Miami Dolphins 28

November 1, 2020 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Rams −3.5

Luck index +95 Dolphins very lucky · −95 Rams

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Rams win 10, Dolphins win 0.

  1. 1 LA 48 MIA 9
  2. 2 LA 42 MIA 10
  3. 3 LA 47 MIA 21
  4. 4 LA 23 MIA 0
  5. 5 LA 46 MIA 26
  6. 6 LA 31 MIA 13
  7. 7 LA 41 MIA 27
  8. 8 LA 27 MIA 17
  9. 9 LA 27 MIA 20
  10. 10 LA 30 MIA 27

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

The Dolphins won on an off day

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Rams they would win 40% of the time; with this day’s form, 5%.

35 points apart for the Dolphins: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Rams offenseEPA per play gained −0.04 +0.15 worse by 0.18
Rams defenseEPA per play allowed −0.24 +0.06 better by 0.30
Dolphins offenseEPA per play gained −0.24 +0.10 worse by 0.34
Dolphins defenseEPA per play allowed −0.04 +0.15 better by 0.19

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Rams win 95% of them, Dolphins 5%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Dolphins by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Rams by 17+68.7%
Rams by 9–1617.0%
Rams by 1–88.7%
Level after regulation0.8%
Dolphins by 1–83.4%
Dolphins by 9–161.1%
Dolphins by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Dolphins by 11. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Dolphins by 6.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • K. Forbath, 23 yds made · 99% expected
  • K. Forbath, 48 yds missed · 75% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 30% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Rams were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:45 The Dolphins fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% LA MIA: Punt
2 Q1 7:27 The Rams converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +7% LA LA: Punt
3 Q1 0:03 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +9% MIA MIA: Touchdown
4 Q2 11:28 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +5% MIA LA: Punt
5 Q2 11:11 The Dolphins fumbled and the Rams recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% LA MIA: Opp touchdown
6 Q2 10:17 The Rams fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50Return touchdown by the DolphinsSpecial teams +50% MIA LA: Opp touchdown
7 Q2 9:03 Return touchdown by the DolphinsSpecial teams +8% MIA MIA: Opp touchdown
8 Q2 3:01 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedThe Rams fumbled and the Dolphins recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% MIA LA: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Austin Jackson (MIA T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Albert Wilson (MIA WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Davon Godchaux (MIA DT), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jordan Fuller (LA S), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Joseph Noteboom (LA OL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Rams 14% · Dolphins 86%

Final margin
Dolphins by 11
Luck in points
4.8 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Dolphins by 6.2
Replay with same day's form
Rams 95% · Dolphins 5% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2020 games · Rams · Dolphins

More from Week 8 2020