luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 8 2020 · November 1, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Patriots at Bills, Week 8 2020: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Patriots 24–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Bills win 9 of 10.

Before kickoff the Bills were 62% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:37 left): the Patriots fumbled and the Bills recovered, worth 23 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

New England Patriots 21
Buffalo Bills 24

November 1, 2020 · New Era Field · Closing line: Bills −4

Luck index +10 Bills about even · −10 Patriots

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 1, Bills win 9.

  1. 1 NE 27 BUF 21
  2. 2 NE 17 BUF 19
  3. 3 NE 27 BUF 31
  4. 4 NE 13 BUF 19
  5. 5 NE 26 BUF 34
  6. 6 NE 10 BUF 22
  7. 7 NE 21 BUF 36
  8. 8 NE 13 BUF 33
  9. 9 NE 24 BUF 50
  10. 10 NE 13 BUF 46

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 10% of them, Bills 90%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+0.7%
Patriots by 9–162.2%
Patriots by 1–87.2%
Level after regulation1.4%
Bills by 1–820.6%
Bills by 9–1624.3%
Bills by 17+43.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.9 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 3, without the luck Patriots by 0.9. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 43 yds made · 79% expected
  • N. Folk, 33 yds made · 92% expected
  • T. Bass, 28 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Patriots 5 for 35 yards, Bills 5 for 30 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 12:43 Delay of Game on the Patriots, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +0.5 pts
Q1 10:59 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bills (Darryl Johnson), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NE +0.4 pts
Q1 4:39 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% BUF +2.4 pts
Q1 3:22 Illegal Use of Hands on the Bills (Ed Oliver), 5 yards, wiping out the play +2% NE +1.0 pts
Q1 0:12 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NE +0.4 pts
Q2 13:15 False Start on the Patriots (Jakobi Meyers), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% BUF +0.6 pts
Q2 9:28 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Patriots (Devin McCourty), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +1.1 pts
Q2 2:00 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards +4% NE +1.2 pts
Q3 5:52 Illegal Use of Hands on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% BUF +2.3 pts
Q3 1:04 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NE +0.8 pts

Patriots penalties, every game · Bills penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Bills’ chance of winning

As low as 47% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bills were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:39 Offensive Holding on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% BUF BUF: Punt
2 Q2 0:12 N. Folk made a 33-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him +7% BUF NE: Punt
3 Q3 5:52 Illegal Use of Hands on the Patriots, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% BUF BUF: Touchdown
4 Q3 3:03 The Patriots’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +8% NE NE: Touchdown
5 Q4 13:16 The Bills converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 56% expected +9% BUF BUF: Touchdown
6 Q4 9:40 The Patriots converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +7% NE NE: Touchdown
7 Q4 4:16 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +6% NE BUF: Field goal
8 Q4 0:37 The Patriots fumbled and the Bills recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +23% BUF –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Micah Hyde (BUF S), out · 0.7 pts
  • Cody Ford (BUF T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Josh Norman (BUF DB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Stephon Gilmore (NE CB), out · 1.3 pts
  • Julian Edelman (NE WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Marcus Cannon (NE T), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Dont'a Hightower (NE LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • N'Keal Harry (NE WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Patrick Chung (NE SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Matt LaCosse (NE TE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Jermaine Eluemunor (NE OL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 42% · Bills 58%

Final margin
Bills by 3
Luck in points
3.9 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 0.9
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 10% · Bills 90% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2020 games · Patriots · Bills

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