luckadjusted

Week 8 2020 · November 1, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Raiders at Browns, Week 8 2020: who deserved to win?

The Raiders beat the Browns 16–6, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Raiders win 8 of 10.

An off day for the Browns: their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 18%. The numbers

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q4, 14:57 left): the Raiders converted 3rd & 4, worth 15 points of win probability to the Raiders.

Final

Las Vegas Raiders 16
Cleveland Browns 6

November 1, 2020 · FirstEnergy Stadium · Closing line: Browns −1

Luck index +18 Raiders about even · −18 Browns

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Raiders win 8, Browns win 2.

  1. 1 LV 28 CLE 3
  2. 2 LV 27 CLE 10
  3. 3 LV 20 CLE 6
  4. 4 LV 13 CLE 3
  5. 5 LV 10 CLE 3
  6. 6 LV 27 CLE 21
  7. 7 LV 7 CLE 3
  8. 8 LV 20 CLE 17
  9. 9 LV 10 CLE 13
  10. 10 LV 14 CLE 24

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

An off day for the Browns

Their offense played far below its usual level. In a fresh game against the Raiders they would win 51% of the time; with this day’s form, 18%.

33 points apart for the Browns: the gap is how differently this game went from what the two teams usually are.

UnitThis gameUsual levelBetter or worse than usual
Raiders offenseEPA per play gained +0.16 +0.17 worse by 0.00
Raiders defenseEPA per play allowed +0.02 +0.18 better by 0.15
Browns offenseEPA per play gained +0.02 +0.15 worse by 0.13
Browns defenseEPA per play allowed +0.16 +0.17 better by 0.00

EPA (expected points added) per play on competitive snaps, turnovers left out because they are valued as luck. Usual level: the team’s earlier games this season plus half of last season, pulled toward the league average. One team’s defense and the other team’s offense are the same snaps, so one game can’t fully say whose day it was; it shows how far this one was from both teams’ norms.

How 4,000 replays ended

Raiders win 82% of them, Browns 18%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Raiders by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Raiders by 17+22.0%
Raiders by 9–1626.6%
Raiders by 1–829.1%
Level after regulation4.7%
Browns by 1–813.1%
Browns by 9–163.9%
Browns by 17+0.7%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Raiders by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Raiders by 0.4.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 41 yds missed · 74% expected
  • C. Parkey, 41 yds made · 75% expected
  • D. Carlson, 29 yds made · 92% expected
  • D. Carlson, 33 yds made · 88% expected
  • C. Parkey, 38 yds made · 81% expected
  • D. Carlson, 24 yds made · 96% expected
  • C. Parkey, 37 yds missed · 83% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Browns’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 71%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Browns were ahead in it, below while the Raiders were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:04 The Raiders converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +7% LV LV: Missed field goal
2 Q1 10:38 D. Carlson missed 41-yard field goalKicks · 74% expected for him +9% CLE LV: Punt
3 Q1 7:59 The Browns fumbled and the Raiders recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% LV CLE: Field goal
4 Q2 10:58 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 183rd & 4th downs · 20% expected +6% LV LV: Field goal
5 Q2 10:16 The Raiders converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +8% LV LV: Field goal
6 Q3 8:50 C. Parkey made 38-yard field goalKicks · 81% expected for him +8% CLE CLE: Punt
7 Q3 5:59 The Raiders converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +9% LV LV: Touchdown
8 Q4 14:57 The Raiders converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +15% LV LV: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Austin Hooper (CLE TE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Wyatt Teller (CLE G), out · 0.4 pts
  • Nick Chubb (CLE RB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Tyrell Williams (LV WR), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Damon Arnette (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Bryan Edwards (LV WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Richie Incognito (LV G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Raiders 55% · Browns 45%

Final margin
Raiders by 10
Luck in points
9.6 for the Raiders
Luck-adjusted margin
Raiders by 0.4
Replay with same day's form
Raiders 82% · Browns 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 8 2020 games · Raiders · Browns

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