2020 season · final
Las Vegas Raiders, 2020: game by game
The Raiders went 8–8 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.9 wins. Luck cost them 1.9: the 6th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–4.
Every game
How often the Raiders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Panthers | W 34–30 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 2 | vs Saints | W 34–24 | 20% | +80 |
| Week 3 | @ Patriots | L 20–36 | 40% | −40 |
| Week 4 | vs Bills | L 23–30 | 56% | −56 |
| Week 5 | @ Chiefs | W 40–32 | 89% | +11 |
| Week 7 | vs Buccaneers | L 20–45 | 55% | −55 |
| Week 8 | @ Browns | W 16–6 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 9 | @ Chargers | W 31–26 | 52% | +48 |
| Week 10 | vs Broncos | W 37–12 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 11 | vs Chiefs | L 31–35 | 56% | −56 |
| Week 12 | @ Falcons | L 6–43 | 18% | −18 |
| Week 13 | @ Jets | W 31–28 | 73% | +27 |
| Week 14 | vs Colts | L 27–44 | 34% | −34 |
| Week 15 | vs Chargers | L 27–30 | 68% | −68 |
| Week 16 | vs Dolphins | L 25–26 | 92% | −92 |
| Week 17 | @ Broncos | W 32–31 | 69% | +31 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Raiders’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.94 | +15.4 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.06 | −8.0 |
| Rest | +0.03 | +0.8 |
| Judgment calls | −0.15 | −2.0 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.16 | −17.8 |