2020 season · final
Las Vegas Raiders, 2020: game by game
The Raiders went 8–8 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 9.8 wins. Luck cost them 1.8: the 6th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 5–4.
Every game
How often the Raiders win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Panthers | W 34–30 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 2 | vs Saints | W 34–24 | 19% | +81 |
| Week 3 | @ Patriots | L 20–36 | 41% | −41 |
| Week 4 | vs Bills | L 23–30 | 55% | −55 |
| Week 5 | @ Chiefs | W 40–32 | 87% | +13 |
| Week 7 | vs Buccaneers | L 20–45 | 54% | −54 |
| Week 8 | @ Browns | W 16–6 | 82% | +18 |
| Week 9 | @ Chargers | W 31–26 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 10 | vs Broncos | W 37–12 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 11 | vs Chiefs | L 31–35 | 57% | −57 |
| Week 12 | @ Falcons | L 6–43 | 17% | −17 |
| Week 13 | @ Jets | W 31–28 | 72% | +29 |
| Week 14 | vs Colts | L 27–44 | 32% | −32 |
| Week 15 | vs Chargers | L 27–30 | 68% | −68 |
| Week 16 | vs Dolphins | L 25–26 | 91% | −91 |
| Week 17 | @ Broncos | W 32–31 | 68% | +32 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Raiders’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +17.3 | +1.08 |
| Rest | +0.8 | +0.05 |
| Injuries | +0.1 | +0.01 |
| Judgment calls | −1.7 | −0.11 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −9.4 | −0.59 |
| Fumble bounces | −12.6 | −0.79 |