luckadjusted

Week 4 2020 · October 4, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bills at Raiders, Week 4 2020: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Raiders 30–23, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Bills win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: injuries alone were worth 2.2 points to the Bills.

Before kickoff the Bills were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 8:41 left): D. Carlson made 25-yard field goal, worth 14 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Buffalo Bills 30
Las Vegas Raiders 23

October 4, 2020 · Allegiant Stadium · Closing line: Bills −3

Luck index +55 Bills lucky · −55 Raiders

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 4, Raiders win 6.

  1. 1 BUF 29 LV 10
  2. 2 BUF 26 LV 14
  3. 3 BUF 16 LV 9
  4. 4 BUF 24 LV 22
  5. 5 BUF 7 LV 9
  6. 6 BUF 16 LV 21
  7. 7 BUF 21 LV 28
  8. 8 BUF 10 LV 21
  9. 9 BUF 13 LV 27
  10. 10 BUF 10 LV 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 45% of them, Raiders 55%, counting the 7% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 7.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+8.3%
Bills by 9–1613.4%
Bills by 1–822.2%
Level after regulation6.5%
Raiders by 1–822.3%
Raiders by 9–1616.0%
Raiders by 17+11.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Bills by 7. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Bills by 5.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • D. Carlson, 54 yds made · 65% expected
  • D. Carlson, 39 yds made · 89% expected
  • T. Bass, 34 yds made · 94% expected
  • D. Carlson, 25 yds made · 98% expected
  • Extra point missed · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Raiders’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 62%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Raiders were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:17 The Bills converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +7% BUF BUF: Touchdown
2 Q1 10:44 The Bills converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +8% BUF BUF: Touchdown
3 Q1 2:41 The Bills converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +7% BUF BUF: Touchdown
4 Q2 13:16 Illegal Formation on the Raiders, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +13% BUF BUF: Field goal
5 Q2 4:17 T. Bass made 34-yard field goalKicks · 94% expected for him +8% LV BUF: End of half
6 Q3 8:41 D. Carlson made 25-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +14% BUF LV: Punt
7 Q3 6:16 The Bills converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 74% expected +8% BUF BUF: Punt
8 Q3 3:19 The Raiders were stopped on 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +8% BUF LV: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Tyrell Williams (LV WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Henry Ruggs III (LV WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Richie Incognito (LV G), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Trent Brown (LV T), out · 0.3 pts
  • Damon Arnette (LV CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Bryan Edwards (LV WR), out · 0.3 pts
  • Jon Feliciano (BUF G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 85% · Raiders 15%

Final margin
Bills by 7
Luck in points
1.7 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 5.3
Replay with same day's form
Bills 45% · Raiders 55% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2020 games · Bills · Raiders

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