luckadjusted

Week 4 2020 · October 4, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Seahawks at Dolphins, Week 4 2020: who deserved to win?

The Seahawks beat the Dolphins 31–23, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Seahawks win 8 of 10. The Dolphins had the bounces: 3rd & 4th downs alone were worth 1.8 points to the Dolphins.

Before kickoff the Seahawks were 63% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 9:18 left): the Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 3, worth 16 points of win probability to the Seahawks.

Final

Seattle Seahawks 31
Miami Dolphins 23

October 4, 2020 · Hard Rock Stadium · Closing line: Seahawks −4.5

Luck index +18 Seahawks about even · −18 Dolphins

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Seahawks win 8, Dolphins win 2.

  1. 1 SEA 39 MIA 10
  2. 2 SEA 33 MIA 10
  3. 3 SEA 34 MIA 15
  4. 4 SEA 43 MIA 28
  5. 5 SEA 33 MIA 21
  6. 6 SEA 38 MIA 28
  7. 7 SEA 40 MIA 34
  8. 8 SEA 40 MIA 38
  9. 9 SEA 20 MIA 23
  10. 10 SEA 16 MIA 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Seahawks win 82% of them, Dolphins 18%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Seahawks by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Seahawks by 17+35.3%
Seahawks by 9–1622.5%
Seahawks by 1–823.7%
Level after regulation1.1%
Dolphins by 1–810.6%
Dolphins by 9–164.9%
Dolphins by 17+1.8%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Seahawks by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Seahawks by 9.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Sanders, 41 yds made · 83% expected
  • J. Myers, 55 yds made · 56% expected
  • J. Sanders, 29 yds made · 96% expected
  • J. Sanders, 45 yds made · 76% expected
  • J. Sanders, 43 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Sanders, 29 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Dolphins’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 58%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Dolphins were ahead in it, below while the Seahawks were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 4:52 The Seahawks were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +12% MIA SEA: Touchdown
2 Q3 10:00 The Seahawks were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +12% MIA SEA: Punt
3 Q3 4:12 J. Sanders made 43-yard field goalKicks · 80% expected for him +9% MIA MIA: Field goal
4 Q4 14:19 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +8% MIA MIA: Field goal
5 Q4 13:03 The Dolphins fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +9% MIA MIA: Field goal
6 Q4 12:14 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +9% MIA MIA: Field goal
7 Q4 11:41 The Dolphins converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +10% MIA MIA: Field goal
8 Q4 9:18 The Dolphins were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +15% SEA MIA: Field goal

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Vince Biegel (MIA LB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Jamal Adams (SEA SS), out · 0.6 pts
  • Quinton Dunbar (SEA CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Rasheem Green (SEA DE), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Bruce Irvin (SEA LB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Lano Hill (SEA SS), out · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Seahawks 91% · Dolphins 9%

Final margin
Seahawks by 8
Luck in points
1.5 for the Dolphins
Luck-adjusted margin
Seahawks by 9.5
Replay with same day's form
Seahawks 82% · Dolphins 18% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2020 games · Seahawks · Dolphins

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