luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 4 2020 · October 4, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Rams, Week 4 2020: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Giants 17–9, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10.

Before kickoff the Rams were 84% favorites.

Final

New York Giants 9
Los Angeles Rams 17

October 4, 2020 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −13.5

Luck index +34 Rams lucky · −34 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 3, Rams win 7.

  1. 1 NYG 27 LA 10
  2. 2 NYG 27 LA 20
  3. 3 NYG 20 LA 17
  4. 4 NYG 22 LA 24
  5. 5 NYG 16 LA 20
  6. 6 NYG 16 LA 23
  7. 7 NYG 10 LA 20
  8. 8 NYG 3 LA 16
  9. 9 NYG 10 LA 27
  10. 10 NYG 3 LA 26

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 34% of them, Rams 66%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+4.6%
Giants by 9–169.8%
Giants by 1–819.3%
Level after regulation1.9%
Rams by 1–827.2%
Rams by 9–1621.4%
Rams by 17+15.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.1 points to the Giants: the final margin was Rams by 8, without the luck Rams by 11.1. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • S. Sloman, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • G. Gano, 37 yds made · 93% expected
  • G. Gano, 27 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 4 for 20 yards, Rams 1 for 5 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 3:47 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% LA +0.4 pts
Q1 0:01 False Start on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% LA +0.6 pts
Q3 1:33 Illegal Formation on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% LA +1.3 pts
Q3 0:22 False Start on the Giants (Kaden Smith), 5 yards · pre-snap +5% LA +0.7 pts
Q4 4:16 Illegal Contact on the Rams, 5 yards +4% NYG +0.4 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Rams penalties, every game · All teams, 2020

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:37 The Rams converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +5% LA LA: Touchdown
2 Q2 8:08 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +5% LA LA: Field goal
3 Q3 10:10 The Giants converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +5% NYG NYG: Punt
4 Q3 4:18 The Giants converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +5% NYG NYG: Field goal
5 Q3 1:33 Illegal Formation on the Giants, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +5% LA LA: Punt
6 Q3 0:22 False Start on the Giants (Kaden Smith), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 2 flags in 544 snaps before, position avg 1 per 276 +5% LA LA: Punt
7 Q4 14:20 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 39% expected +6% LA NYG: Field goal
8 Q4 10:32 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +7% LA NYG: Punt

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jordan Fuller (LA S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Saquon Barkley (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Jabrill Peppers (NYG S), out · 0.3 pts
  • David Mayo (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Rams 100%

Final margin
Rams by 8
Luck in points
3.1 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 11.1
Replay with same day's form
Giants 34% · Rams 66% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2020 games · Giants · Rams

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