luckadjusted

Week 4 2020 · October 4, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Rams, Week 4 2020: who deserved to win?

The Rams beat the Giants 17–9 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Rams were 84% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 7:06 left): the Rams converted 3rd & 3, worth 14 points of win probability to the Rams.

Final

New York Giants 9
Los Angeles Rams 17

October 4, 2020 · SoFi Stadium · Closing line: Rams −13.5

Luck index +32 Rams lucky · −32 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 3, Rams win 7.

  1. 1 NYG 25 LA 9
  2. 2 NYG 13 LA 6
  3. 3 NYG 23 LA 20
  4. 4 NYG 7 LA 9
  5. 5 NYG 10 LA 13
  6. 6 NYG 14 LA 20
  7. 7 NYG 10 LA 19
  8. 8 NYG 10 LA 23
  9. 9 NYG 0 LA 16
  10. 10 NYG 10 LA 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 32% of them, Rams 68%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 8.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+3.6%
Giants by 9–168.3%
Giants by 1–816.0%
Level after regulation4.3%
Rams by 1–826.7%
Rams by 9–1621.5%
Rams by 17+19.6%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Rams by 8. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 10.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 35 yds made · 94% expected
  • S. Sloman, 32 yds made · 95% expected
  • G. Gano, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • G. Gano, 27 yds made · 98% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Rams’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Rams were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q2 14:11 The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% NYG LA: Punt
2 Q2 8:08 The Rams converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +6% LA LA: Field goal
3 Q3 10:10 The Giants converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +7% NYG NYG: Punt
4 Q3 4:18 The Giants converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +11% NYG NYG: Field goal
5 Q4 14:20 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% LA NYG: Field goal
6 Q4 14:15 G. Gano made 27-yard field goalKicks · 98% expected for him +8% LA NYG: Punt
7 Q4 10:32 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +8% LA NYG: Punt
8 Q4 7:06 The Rams converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected +14% LA LA: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jordan Fuller (LA S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Saquon Barkley (NYG RB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Jabrill Peppers (NYG S), out · 0.3 pts
  • David Mayo (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Rams 100%

Final margin
Rams by 8
Luck in points
2.0 for the Giants
Luck-adjusted margin
Rams by 10.0
Replay with same day's form
Giants 32% · Rams 68% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2020 games · Giants · Rams

More from Week 4 2020