luckadjusted

Week 4 2020 · October 4, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Browns at Cowboys, Week 4 2020: who deserved to win?

The Browns beat the Cowboys 49–38, but it was a coin flip: replayed with the way both teams played, the Browns win 4 of 10. Luck ran their way: judgment calls alone were worth 3.5 points to the Browns.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:13 left): the Cowboys converted 4th & 2, worth 11 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

Cleveland Browns 49
Dallas Cowboys 38

October 4, 2020 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −3.5

Luck index +60 Browns lucky · −60 Cowboys

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Browns win 4, Cowboys win 6.

  1. 1 CLE 42 DAL 19
  2. 2 CLE 40 DAL 27
  3. 3 CLE 30 DAL 23
  4. 4 CLE 41 DAL 38
  5. 5 CLE 28 DAL 30
  6. 6 CLE 31 DAL 37
  7. 7 CLE 34 DAL 44
  8. 8 CLE 20 DAL 36
  9. 9 CLE 27 DAL 47
  10. 10 CLE 6 DAL 36

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Browns win 40% of them, Cowboys 60%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Browns by 11.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Browns by 17+9.5%
Browns by 9–1612.4%
Browns by 1–818.1%
Level after regulation2.4%
Cowboys by 1–822.1%
Cowboys by 9–1616.3%
Cowboys by 17+19.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Browns by 11. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Browns by 2.3.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • C. Parkey, 37 yds made · 92% expected
  • C. Parkey, 44 yds made · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 70%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Browns were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 7:43 The Browns converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +5% CLE CLE: Punt
2 Q1 6:25 The Browns were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +3% DAL CLE: Punt
3 Q1 2:13 The Cowboys converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +11% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 13:38 The Browns converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +5% CLE CLE: Touchdown
5 Q2 11:23 The Cowboys fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +8% CLE DAL: Turnover
6 Q2 9:22 The Cowboys fumbled and the Browns recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +3% CLE DAL: Punt
7 Q2 1:11 The Browns converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +4% CLE CLE: Field goal
8 Q4 3:42 The Cowboys’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +5% DAL DAL: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • La'el Collins (DAL T), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Chidobe Awuzie (DAL CB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
  • Sean Lee (DAL LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Greedy Williams (CLE CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Browns 75% · Cowboys 25%

Final margin
Browns by 11
Luck in points
8.7 for the Browns
Luck-adjusted margin
Browns by 2.3
Replay with same day's form
Browns 40% · Cowboys 60% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2020 games · Browns · Cowboys

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