luckadjusted

Week 4 2020 · October 4, 2020

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at Panthers, Week 4 2020: who deserved to win?

The Panthers beat the Cardinals 31–21 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 3.7 points to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the Cardinals were 59% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 9:27 left): the Panthers converted 4th & 2, worth 9 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 21
Carolina Panthers 31

October 4, 2020 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Cardinals −3

Luck index +20 Panthers about even · −20 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 2, Panthers win 8.

  1. 1 ARI 36 CAR 22
  2. 2 ARI 19 CAR 16
  3. 3 ARI 18 CAR 20
  4. 4 ARI 31 CAR 36
  5. 5 ARI 13 CAR 20
  6. 6 ARI 20 CAR 31
  7. 7 ARI 3 CAR 17
  8. 8 ARI 0 CAR 17
  9. 9 ARI 3 CAR 24
  10. 10 ARI 7 CAR 35

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 20% of them, Panthers 80%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Panthers by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+1.8%
Cardinals by 9–166.2%
Cardinals by 1–811.1%
Level after regulation2.4%
Panthers by 1–826.5%
Panthers by 9–1620.2%
Panthers by 17+32.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Panthers by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Panthers by 11.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • J. Slye, 27 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Slye, 42 yds missed · 84% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:19 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +2% CAR ARI: Punt
2 Q1 12:18 The Panthers converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% CAR CAR: Touchdown
3 Q1 9:27 The Panthers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +9% CAR CAR: Touchdown
4 Q1 8:39 The Panthers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% CAR CAR: Touchdown
5 Q1 6:13 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 54% expected +3% CAR ARI: Punt
6 Q1 1:38 The Panthers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +3% CAR CAR: Touchdown
7 Q3 9:51 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 63% expectedThe Cardinals fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +7% CAR ARI: Touchdown
8 Q3 9:00 The Panthers converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 32% expected +2% CAR CAR: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Russell Okung (CAR T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR RB), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Dennis Daley (CAR G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Budda Baker (ARI S), out · 0.8 pts
  • Budda Baker (ARI FS), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jalen Thompson (ARI FS), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Chris Banjo (ARI S), out · 0.2 pts
  • Devon Kennard (ARI LB), out · 0.2 pts
  • Maxx Williams (ARI TE), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 1% · Panthers 99%

Final margin
Panthers by 10
Luck in points
1.0 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
Panthers by 11.0
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 20% · Panthers 80% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 4 2020 games · Cardinals · Panthers

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