2020 season · final

Carolina Panthers, 2020: game by game

The Panthers went 5–11 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.4 wins. Luck cost them 3.4: the 2nd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–8.

Every game

How often the Panthers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Raiders	L 30–34	14%	−14
Week 2	@ Buccaneers	L 17–31	24%	−24
Week 3	@ Chargers	W 21–16	60%	+40
Week 4	vs Cardinals	W 31–21	80%	+20
Week 5	@ Falcons	W 23–16	95%	+5
Week 6	vs Bears	L 16–23	79%	−79
Week 7	@ Saints	L 24–27	57%	−57
Week 8	vs Falcons	L 17–25	63%	−63
Week 9	@ Chiefs	L 31–33	55%	−55
Week 10	vs Buccaneers	L 23–46	31%	−31
Week 11	vs Lions	W 20–0	87%	+13
Week 12	@ Vikings	L 27–28	71%	−71
Week 14	vs Broncos	L 27–32	39%	−39
Week 15	@ Packers	L 16–24	19%	−19
Week 16	@ Washington	W 20–13	54%	+46
Week 17	vs Saints	L 7–33	13%	−13

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −14 vs LV

Wk 2 −24 @ TB

Wk 3 +40 @ LAC

Wk 4 +20 vs ARI

Wk 5 +5 @ ATL

Wk 6 −79 vs CHI

Wk 7 −57 @ NO

Wk 8 −63 vs ATL

Wk 9 −55 @ KC

Wk 10 −31 vs TB

Wk 11 +13 vs DET

Wk 12 −71 @ MIN

Wk 14 −39 vs DEN

Wk 15 −19 @ GB

Wk 16 +46 @ WAS

Wk 17 −13 vs NO

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Panthers’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Fumble bounces	+17.3	+1.08
Judgment calls	+2.1	+0.13
Rest	+0.2	+0.01
Injuries	−2.9	−0.18
3rd & 4th downs	−11.0	−0.69
Kicks	−17.7	−1.10