2020 season · final

Carolina Panthers, 2020: game by game

The Panthers went 5–11 in 2020; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.4 wins. Luck cost them 3.4: the 2nd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–8.

Every game

How often the Panthers win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Raiders	L 30–34	14%	−14
Week 2	@ Buccaneers	L 17–31	27%	−27
Week 3	@ Chargers	W 21–16	59%	+41
Week 4	vs Cardinals	W 31–21	78%	+22
Week 5	@ Falcons	W 23–16	95%	+5
Week 6	vs Bears	L 16–23	80%	−80
Week 7	@ Saints	L 24–27	57%	−57
Week 8	vs Falcons	L 17–25	63%	−63
Week 9	@ Chiefs	L 31–33	53%	−53
Week 10	vs Buccaneers	L 23–46	34%	−34
Week 11	vs Lions	W 20–0	85%	+15
Week 12	@ Vikings	L 27–28	67%	−67
Week 14	vs Broncos	L 27–32	41%	−41
Week 15	@ Packers	L 16–24	18%	−18
Week 16	@ Washington	W 20–13	56%	+44
Week 17	vs Saints	L 7–33	13%	−13

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 −14 vs LV

Wk 2 −27 @ TB

Wk 3 +41 @ LAC

Wk 4 +22 vs ARI

Wk 5 +5 @ ATL

Wk 6 −80 vs CHI

Wk 7 −57 @ NO

Wk 8 −63 vs ATL

Wk 9 −53 @ KC

Wk 10 −34 vs TB

Wk 11 +15 vs DET

Wk 12 −67 @ MIN

Wk 14 −41 vs DEN

Wk 15 −18 @ GB

Wk 16 +44 @ WAS

Wk 17 −13 vs NO

Where the luck came from

Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Panthers’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.

Kind	Wins	Points
Fumble bounces	+1.05	+23.7
Judgment calls	+0.02	+1.1
Injuries	−0.07	−2.2
3rd & 4th downs	−0.31	−11.5
Kicks	−1.35	−15.7