luckadjusted

Referee calls · 2019–2026

Do refs favor the Panthers?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth +0.44 points a game to the Panthers since 2019, 8th of 32 teams. In the playoffs: +4.77 points a game over 1 game, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

Call luck, season by season

Points per regular-season game from judgment calls: the calls that helped the Panthers minus the calls that hurt them.

SeasonGamesPoints per gameLeague rankFlags againstFlags forPlayoffs, pts per game
20262−2.03 23rd1010 –
202517+0.51 12th5667 +4.77 (1)
202417+1.16 5th6476 –
202317+0.42 13th5761 –
202217+0.33 10th6268 –
2021170.00 16th6164 –
202016+0.13 15th6450 –
201916+0.84 13th5567 –

Biggest calls for the Panthers

  1. Defensive Holding on the Cardinals (Denzel Burke), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 2 · 35 pts of win probability
  2. Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards · 2024 Week 18 · 23 pts of win probability
  3. Defensive Holding on the Buccaneers (Carlton Davis), 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 2 · 20 pts of win probability
  4. Roughing the Passer on the Saints (Justin Reid), 15 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 10 · 19 pts of win probability
  5. Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Greg Ward), 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2021 Week 5 · 18 pts of win probability

Biggest calls against

  1. Illegal Use of Hands on the Panthers, 5 yards, wiping out the play · 2019 Week 5 · 46 pts of win probability
  2. Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2025 Week 2 · 26 pts of win probability
  3. Unnecessary Roughness on the Panthers (Lathan Ransom), 15 yards · 2025 Week 15 · 24 pts of win probability
  4. Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (C.J. Henderson), 34 yards, wiping out the play · 2022 Week 1 · 22 pts of win probability
  5. Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play · 2023 Week 15 · 19 pts of win probability

Questions

Do refs favor the Panthers?

No more than most teams. Judgment calls have been worth +0.44 points a game to the Panthers since 2019, 8th of 32 teams.

What about the playoffs?

In the playoffs: +4.77 points a game over 1 game, a small sample that swings on a handful of flags.

How is this measured?

Every flag that isn’t a pre-snap foul (holding, pass interference, roughing, unnecessary roughness and the like) is valued in expected points for the team it helped, including any play it wiped out. A flag on a player who is rarely flagged counts more (up to twice), one on a frequent offender less. A team’s call luck is the calls that helped it minus the calls that hurt it. It says how the calls went, not why: teams that throw deep draw more pass interference, for example.

Is it more than chance?

Mostly not. A team’s call luck in odd weeks barely predicts its call luck in even weeks (correlation 0.06 across all teams since 2019), which is what chance looks like. Over 32 teams, a few will always sit at the top of this list.

All teams, 2026 · Referee crews · Carolina Panthers, every season