luckadjusted

Week 5 2021 · October 10, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Panthers, Week 5 2021: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Panthers 21–18, but the Panthers played well enough to win it: they take 6 of 10 replays with the same day's form.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:54 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Greg Ward), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 18 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 21
Carolina Panthers 18

October 10, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −2.5

Luck index +62 Eagles very lucky · −62 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 4, Panthers win 6.

  1. 1 PHI 40 CAR 19
  2. 2 PHI 30 CAR 16
  3. 3 PHI 20 CAR 13
  4. 4 PHI 43 CAR 41
  5. 5 PHI 24 CAR 26
  6. 6 PHI 21 CAR 27
  7. 7 PHI 14 CAR 23
  8. 8 PHI 13 CAR 26
  9. 9 PHI 24 CAR 43
  10. 10 PHI 13 CAR 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 38% of them, Panthers 62%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+7.5%
Eagles by 9–1611.5%
Eagles by 1–817.9%
Level after regulation2.1%
Panthers by 1–823.6%
Panthers by 9–1618.4%
Panthers by 17+19.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Eagles by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Eagles by 12.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 48 yds made · 67% expected
  • J. Elliott, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 43 yds made · 79% expected
  • J. Elliott, 58 yds made · 50% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 50 yds made · 64% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:54 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Greg Ward), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1397 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +18% CAR CAR: Touchdown
2 Q2 8:32 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +7% PHI CAR: Punt
3 Q3 11:20 The Eagles were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expectedThe Eagles fumbled and the Panthers recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +13% CAR PHI: Turnover
4 Q3 0:38 The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected +15% PHI PHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:00 Blocked punt by the EaglesSpecial teams +18% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:38 The Eagles’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +9% PHI PHI: End of game
7 Q4 2:30 The Panthers converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 19% expectedFalse Start on the Panthers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +15% CAR CAR: Turnover
8 Q4 2:07 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% PHI PHI: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Cameron Erving (CAR T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rashaan Melvin (CAR CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Juston Burris (CAR S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Juston Burris (CAR SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Pat Elflein (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Brandon Graham (PHI DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Brooks (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • K'Von Wallace (PHI SS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 95% · Panthers 5%

Final margin
Eagles by 3
Luck in points
9.5 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 12.5
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 38% · Panthers 62% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2021 games · Eagles · Panthers

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