luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2021 · October 10, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Eagles at Panthers, Week 5 2021: who deserved to win?

The Eagles beat the Panthers 21–18, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Eagles win 4 of 10.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 57% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 6:54 left): Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Greg Ward), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 19 points of win probability to the Panthers.

Final

Philadelphia Eagles 21
Carolina Panthers 18

October 10, 2021 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −2.5

Luck index +56 Eagles lucky · −56 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Eagles win 4, Panthers win 6.

  1. 1 PHI 41 CAR 18
  2. 2 PHI 43 CAR 30
  3. 3 PHI 41 CAR 33
  4. 4 PHI 26 CAR 24
  5. 5 PHI 23 CAR 25
  6. 6 PHI 24 CAR 29
  7. 7 PHI 20 CAR 28
  8. 8 PHI 13 CAR 26
  9. 9 PHI 20 CAR 36
  10. 10 PHI 17 CAR 44

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Eagles win 44% of them, Panthers 56%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Eagles by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Eagles by 17+9.8%
Eagles by 9–1614.1%
Eagles by 1–818.1%
Level after regulation2.7%
Panthers by 1–823.6%
Panthers by 9–1615.5%
Panthers by 17+16.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +6.6 points to the Panthers: the final margin was Eagles by 3, without the luck Eagles by 9.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 48 yds made · 66% expected
  • J. Elliott, 30 yds made · 95% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 43 yds made · 80% expected
  • J. Elliott, 58 yds made · 53% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 50 yds made · 62% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Eagles 6 for 60 yards, Panthers 9 for 69 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 13:39 Face Mask on the Eagles, 15 yards +2% CAR +1.8 pts
Q1 9:33 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.7 pts
Q1 6:54 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Greg Ward), 10 yards, wiping out the play +19% CAR +4.2 pts
Q2 6:55 Offensive Holding on the Eagles, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% CAR +1.9 pts
Q2 5:13 Unnecessary Roughness on the Eagles, 15 yards +3% CAR +1.8 pts
Q2 0:20 Defensive Offside on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI +0.1 pts
Q3 15:00 Offensive Holding on the Panthers (Kamal Martin), 10 yards +1% PHI +0.9 pts
Q3 8:09 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +1% PHI +0.9 pts
Q3 0:59 False Start on the Eagles, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% CAR +0.6 pts
Q3 0:17 Defensive Pass Interference on the Panthers (Donte Jackson), 9 yards +5% PHI +1.2 pts
Q3 0:08 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +2% PHI +0.9 pts
Q3 0:08 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Panthers (Jeremy Chinn), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% PHI 0.0 pts
Q4 7:31 Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Eagles, 5 yards +3% CAR +0.6 pts
Q4 2:30 False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% PHI +0.5 pts
Q4 2:07 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards +6% PHI +0.5 pts

Eagles penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 92%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Eagles were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 6:54 Offensive Pass Interference on the Eagles (Greg Ward), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 1397 snaps before, position avg 1 per 399 +19% CAR CAR: Touchdown
2 Q3 0:38 The Eagles converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +8% PHI PHI: Touchdown
3 Q4 8:33 Z. Gonzalez made a 50-yard field goalKicks · 62% expected for him, 14 of 23 from 45+ before +6% CAR CAR: Punt
4 Q4 5:38 The Eagles were stopped on 4th & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +5% CAR PHI: Touchdown
5 Q4 4:00 Blocked punt by the EaglesSpecial teams +18% PHI PHI: Touchdown
6 Q4 2:38 The Eagles’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +9% PHI PHI: End of game
7 Q4 2:30 The Panthers converted 3rd & 153rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedFalse Start on the Panthers, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +15% CAR CAR: Turnover
8 Q4 2:07 Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yardsJudgment calls +6% PHI PHI: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jaycee Horn (CAR CB), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
  • Cameron Erving (CAR T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Christian McCaffrey (CAR RB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Shaq Thompson (CAR LB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Rashaan Melvin (CAR CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Juston Burris (CAR S), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Juston Burris (CAR SS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Pat Elflein (CAR G), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Lane Johnson (PHI T), out · 1.2 pts
  • Brandon Graham (PHI DE), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI OL), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Brandon Brooks (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Isaac Seumalo (PHI G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • K'Von Wallace (PHI SS), out (IR) · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Eagles 96% · Panthers 4%

Final margin
Eagles by 3
Luck in points
6.6 for the Panthers
Luck-adjusted margin
Eagles by 9.6
Replay with same day's form
Eagles 44% · Panthers 56% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2021 games · Eagles · Panthers

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