luckadjusted

Week 5 2021 · October 10, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Packers at Bengals, Week 5 2021: who deserved to win?

The Packers beat the Bengals 25–22, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Packers win 9 of 10. The Bengals had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 3.0 points to the Bengals.

Before kickoff the Packers were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (QOT, 8:12 left): M. Crosby missed 40-yard field goal, worth 42 points of win probability to the Bengals.

Final (OT)

Green Bay Packers 25
Cincinnati Bengals 22

October 10, 2021 · Paul Brown Stadium · Closing line: Packers −2

Luck index +14 Packers about even · −14 Bengals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Packers win 9, Bengals win 1.

  1. 1 GB 41 CIN 6
  2. 2 GB 62 CIN 36
  3. 3 GB 40 CIN 20
  4. 4 GB 33 CIN 16
  5. 5 GB 27 CIN 14
  6. 6 GB 19 CIN 9
  7. 7 GB 30 CIN 23
  8. 8 GB 35 CIN 31
  9. 9 GB 23 CIN 20
  10. 10 GB 24 CIN 31

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Packers win 86% of them, Bengals 14%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Packers by 3.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Packers by 17+46.8%
Packers by 9–1621.3%
Packers by 1–818.1%
Level after regulation1.7%
Bengals by 1–87.4%
Bengals by 9–163.5%
Bengals by 17+1.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Packers by 3. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Packers by 5.9.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • M. Crosby, 44 yds made · 80% expected
  • M. Crosby, 44 yds made · 81% expected
  • M. Crosby, 22 yds made · 100% expected
  • M. Crosby, 36 yds missed · 92% expected
  • E. McPherson, 57 yds missed · 57% expected
  • M. Crosby, 51 yds missed · 70% expected
  • M. Crosby, 40 yds missed · 86% expected
  • E. McPherson, 49 yds missed · 70% expected
  • M. Crosby, 49 yds made · 72% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Bengals’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 77%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Bengals were ahead in it, below while the Packers were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 3:27 The Bengals’ two-point try was good3rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +14% CIN CIN: Missed field goal
2 Q4 2:16 M. Crosby missed 36-yard field goalKicks · 92% expected for him +23% CIN GB: Missed field goal
3 Q4 0:26 E. McPherson missed 57-yard field goalKicks · 57% expected for him, 2 of 2 from 45+ before +32% GB CIN: Turnover
4 Q4 0:03 M. Crosby missed 51-yard field goalKicks · 70% expected for him, 12 of 14 from 45+ before +30% CIN GB: Missed field goal
5 QOT 8:12 M. Crosby missed 40-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +42% CIN GB: Field goal
6 QOT 6:44 The Bengals converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 59% expected +22% CIN CIN: Missed field goal
7 QOT 2:33 The Packers were stopped on 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 23% expected +41% GB GB: Field goal
8 QOT 2:00 M. Crosby made 49-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 12 of 15 from 45+ before +26% GB –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Xavier Su'a-Filo (CIN G), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Fred Johnson (CIN OT), out · 0.2 pts
  • Jaire Alexander (GB CB), out (IR) · 0.9 pts
  • Josh Myers (GB C), out · 0.6 pts
  • Elgton Jenkins (GB G), out · 0.5 pts
  • Marquez Valdes-Scantling (GB WR), out (IR) · 0.5 pts
  • Za'Darius Smith (GB LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Packers 69% · Bengals 31%

Final margin
Packers by 3
Luck in points
2.9 for the Bengals
Luck-adjusted margin
Packers by 5.9
Replay with same day's form
Packers 86% · Bengals 14% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2021 games · Packers · Bengals

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