luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 5 2021 · October 10, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Cowboys, Week 5 2021: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Giants 44–20, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 7 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 8 points of win probability to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 10:52 left): G. Gano missed a 54-yard field goal, worth 10 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

New York Giants 20
Dallas Cowboys 44

October 10, 2021 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −7.5

Luck index +27 Cowboys lucky · −27 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 3, Cowboys win 7.

  1. 1 NYG 45 DAL 28
  2. 2 NYG 34 DAL 27
  3. 3 NYG 26 DAL 23
  4. 4 NYG 22 DAL 24
  5. 5 NYG 23 DAL 27
  6. 6 NYG 40 DAL 48
  7. 7 NYG 20 DAL 31
  8. 8 NYG 10 DAL 24
  9. 9 NYG 14 DAL 31
  10. 10 NYG 12 DAL 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 27% of them, Cowboys 73%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+4.2%
Giants by 9–166.8%
Giants by 1–814.6%
Level after regulation4.1%
Cowboys by 1–825.4%
Cowboys by 9–1620.2%
Cowboys by 17+24.8%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +4.4 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 24, without the luck Cowboys by 19.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 54 yds missed · 73% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • G. Gano, 51 yds made · 75% expected
  • G. Gano, 51 yds made · 75% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 38 yds made · 91% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 31 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Giants 5 for 48 yards, Cowboys 8 for 58 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:37 Illegal Formation on the Cowboys (Blake Jarwin), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap +4% NYG +1.5 pts
Q2 10:10 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.7 pts
Q2 7:07 Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.7 pts
Q3 13:27 Defensive Offside on the Cowboys (Tarell Basham), 5 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +1.0 pts
Q3 8:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (James Bradberry), 3 yards +2% DAL +1.6 pts
Q3 6:57 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% NYG +3.3 pts
Q3 5:27 Roughing the Passer on the Giants (Azeez Ojulari), 15 yards +2% DAL +2.1 pts
Q3 0:52 Encroachment on the Cowboys (Carlos Watkins), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.5 pts
Q4 10:56 Unnecessary Roughness on the Cowboys, 15 yards +2% NYG +1.4 pts
Q4 5:52 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +1% DAL +1.9 pts
Q4 4:21 Defensive Pass Interference on the Cowboys (Jayron Kearse), 8 yards 0% NYG +0.2 pts
Q4 2:55 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Leonard Williams), 15 yards 0% DAL +1.7 pts
Q4 1:23 Illegal Forward Pass on the Giants (Mike Glennon), 5 yards +1% DAL +0.3 pts

Giants penalties, every game · Cowboys penalties, every game · All teams, 2021

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:52 G. Gano missed a 54-yard field goalKicks · 73% expected for him, 13 of 14 from 45+ before +10% DAL NYG: Punt
2 Q1 3:02 The Cowboys converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected +6% DAL DAL: Turnover
3 Q1 0:38 The Cowboys fumbled and the Giants recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +6% NYG DAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 2:56 The Giants converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 67% expected +9% NYG NYG: Touchdown
5 Q2 1:07 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +7% DAL DAL: Touchdown
6 Q3 11:18 G. Gano made a 51-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 14 of 16 from 45+ before +7% NYG NYG: Turnover
7 Q3 6:57 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 12:26 The Giants were stopped on 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +6% DAL NYG: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Gallup (DAL WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Brandon Knight (DAL T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Donovan Wilson (DAL S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Hunter Niswander (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Neville Gallimore (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Andrew Thomas (NYG T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Darius Slayton (NYG WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jabrill Peppers (NYG S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Blake Martinez (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nick Gates (NYG C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jabrill Peppers (NYG SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (NYG G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Shane Lemieux (NYG OL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Cowboys 100%

Final margin
Cowboys by 24
Luck in points
4.4 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 19.6
Replay with same day's form
Giants 27% · Cowboys 73% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2021 games · Giants · Cowboys

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