luckadjusted

Week 5 2021 · October 10, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Giants at Cowboys, Week 5 2021: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat the Giants 44–20 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 7 of 10. The Giants had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 1.6 points to the Giants.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 71% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 12:06 left): the Cowboys converted 3rd & 8, worth 13 points of win probability to the Cowboys.

Final

New York Giants 20
Dallas Cowboys 44

October 10, 2021 · AT&T Stadium · Closing line: Cowboys −7.5

Luck index +29 Cowboys lucky · −29 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Giants win 3, Cowboys win 7.

  1. 1 NYG 48 DAL 31
  2. 2 NYG 27 DAL 20
  3. 3 NYG 23 DAL 21
  4. 4 NYG 17 DAL 19
  5. 5 NYG 34 DAL 38
  6. 6 NYG 19 DAL 27
  7. 7 NYG 24 DAL 35
  8. 8 NYG 17 DAL 31
  9. 9 NYG 10 DAL 30
  10. 10 NYG 14 DAL 42

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Giants win 29% of them, Cowboys 71%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 24.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Giants by 17+4.6%
Giants by 9–167.7%
Giants by 1–814.2%
Level after regulation4.0%
Cowboys by 1–826.6%
Cowboys by 9–1618.9%
Cowboys by 17+24.0%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 24. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 17.6.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • G. Gano, 54 yds missed · 72% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • G. Gano, 51 yds made · 76% expected
  • G. Gano, 51 yds made · 76% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 38 yds made · 90% expected
  • G. Zuerlein, 31 yds made · 95% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Cowboys’ chance of winning

As low as 41% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Cowboys were ahead in it, below while the Giants were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 10:52 G. Gano missed 54-yard field goalKicks · 72% expected for him, 13 of 14 from 45+ before +10% DAL NYG: Punt
2 Q1 3:02 The Cowboys converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 73% expected +8% DAL DAL: Turnover
3 Q2 12:06 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +13% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 11:45 The Giants converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 26% expected +7% NYG NYG: Field goal
5 Q2 4:50 The Giants converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +8% NYG NYG: Touchdown
6 Q2 2:56 The Giants converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 65% expected +11% NYG NYG: Touchdown
7 Q2 1:07 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +7% DAL DAL: Touchdown
8 Q3 10:04 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +7% DAL DAL: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Michael Gallup (DAL WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Brandon Knight (DAL T), out · 0.6 pts
  • Donovan Wilson (DAL S), out · 0.4 pts
  • Hunter Niswander (DAL P), out (IR) · 0.2 pts
  • Neville Gallimore (DAL DT), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Andrew Thomas (NYG T), out · 0.9 pts
  • Darius Slayton (NYG WR), out · 0.8 pts
  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jabrill Peppers (NYG S), out · 0.5 pts
  • Blake Martinez (NYG LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Nick Gates (NYG C), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jabrill Peppers (NYG SS), out · 0.3 pts
  • Ben Bredeson (NYG G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Shane Lemieux (NYG OL), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Giants 0% · Cowboys 100%

Final margin
Cowboys by 24
Luck in points
6.4 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 17.6
Replay with same day's form
Giants 29% · Cowboys 71% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 5 2021 games · Giants · Cowboys

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