NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Cowboys have won 64.5 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 68.2. Luck cost them 3.7 wins. Their luckiest season was 2022 (+1.4 wins), the unluckiest 2019 (−5.6).
2026: 4–5 so far, replay wins 6.3 (−2.3 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, wins | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 4–5 | 6.3 | −2.3 | 2–4 | −0.11 | – |
| 2025 | 7–9–1 | 8.0 | −0.5 | 4–3–1 | +0.56 | – |
| 2024 | 7–10 | 5.8 | +1.2 | 5–5 | +1.42 | – |
| 2023 | 12–5 | 11.3 | +0.7 | 3–2 | +0.96 | 0–1 |
| 2022 | 12–5 | 10.6 | +1.4 | 5–2 | +0.49 | 1–1 |
| 2021 | 12–5 | 11.3 | +0.7 | 5–3 | −1.11 | 0–1 |
| 2020 | 6–10 | 7.6 | −1.6 | 4–4 | −1.19 | – |
| 2019 | 8–8 | 13.6 | −5.6 | 1–6 | −0.15 | – |
Where the luck came from
Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.
| Season | Luck in wins | Fumble bounces | Kicks | Drops | Judgment calls | Injuries | 3rd & 4th downs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 | −0.5 | +0.36 | +0.11 | −0.51 | +0.28 | +0.07 | −0.18 |
| 2024 | +1.2 | +0.20 | +0.14 | +0.45 | +0.71 | −1.28 | −0.28 |
| 2023 | +0.7 | −0.14 | +0.26 | −0.45 | +0.48 | +0.01 | +0.39 |
| 2022 | +1.4 | +0.87 | +0.27 | +0.49 | +0.25 | −0.41 | +0.13 |
| 2021 | +0.7 | +0.60 | 0.00 | 0.00 | −0.56 | +0.12 | +0.17 |
| 2020 | −1.6 | −0.07 | +0.30 | 0.00 | −0.60 | −1.04 | −0.08 |
| 2019 | −5.6 | +0.05 | −0.10 | 0.00 | −0.08 | +0.33 | −0.07 |
| Since 2019 | −3.7 | +1.87 | +0.98 | −0.02 | +0.49 | −2.19 | +0.08 |
Are the Cowboys lucky?
No, the opposite. Since 2019 the Cowboys have won 64.5 regular-season games from play worth 68.2: −3.7 wins of luck, the 10th-least of 32 teams.
Why have the Cowboys had so much bad luck?
Most of it came from injuries (−2.2 wins) and drops (0.0 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 27–25–1 since 2019, where the replays give them 28.9 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.
What was the Cowboys’ luckiest season?
2022: 12–5 from play worth 10.6 wins, +1.4 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2019: 8–8 from play worth 13.6 (−5.6).
By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from
The Cowboys’ luckiest wins
Wins the Cowboys take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 2 | vs Giants | W 40–37 | 12% | +88 |
| 2020 Week 15 | vs 49ers | W 41–33 | 16% | +84 |
| 2025 Week 17 | @ Commanders | W 30–23 | 18% | +82 |
| 2023 Week 17 | vs Lions | W 20–19 | 34% | +66 |
| 2024 Week 12 | @ Commanders | W 34–26 | 34% | +66 |
The Cowboys’ unluckiest losses
Losses the Cowboys would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Week 6 | @ Jets | L 22–24 | 97% | −97 |
| 2026 Week 5 | vs Buccaneers | L 16–24 | 96% | −96 |
| 2019 Week 5 | vs Packers | L 24–34 | 95% | −95 |
| 2019 Week 12 | @ Patriots | L 9–13 | 88% | −88 |
| 2019 Week 14 | @ Bears | L 24–31 | 88% | −88 |
