NFC East
Dallas Cowboys: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Cowboys have won 64.5 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 68.8. Luck cost them 4.4 wins. Their luckiest season was 2022 (+1.2 wins), the unluckiest 2019 (−5.5).
2026: 1–1 so far, replay wins 1.6 (−0.6 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, pts per game | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1–1 | 1.6 | −0.6 | 0–1 | +0.70 | – |
| 2025 | 7–9–1 | 8.6 | −1.1 | 4–3–1 | +1.08 | – |
| 2024 | 7–10 | 6.1 | +0.9 | 5–5 | +3.12 | – |
| 2023 | 12–5 | 11.0 | +1.0 | 3–2 | +0.64 | 0–1 |
| 2022 | 12–5 | 10.8 | +1.2 | 5–2 | +0.39 | 1–1 |
| 2021 | 12–5 | 11.4 | +0.6 | 5–3 | −1.23 | 0–1 |
| 2020 | 6–10 | 7.6 | −1.6 | 4–4 | −0.77 | – |
| 2019 | 8–8 | 13.5 | −5.5 | 1–6 | −0.64 | – |
Luckiest wins
Wins the Cowboys take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2025 Week 2 | vs Giants | W 40–37 | 16% | +85 |
| 2020 Week 15 | vs 49ers | W 41–33 | 18% | +82 |
| 2024 Week 12 | @ Commanders | W 34–26 | 19% | +81 |
| 2025 Week 17 | @ Commanders | W 30–23 | 30% | +70 |
| 2022 Week 5 | @ Rams | W 22–10 | 32% | +68 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses the Cowboys would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2019 Week 6 | @ Jets | L 22–24 | 96% | −96 |
| 2019 Week 5 | vs Packers | L 24–34 | 93% | −93 |
| 2019 Week 14 | @ Bears | L 24–31 | 87% | −87 |
| 2019 Week 12 | @ Patriots | L 9–13 | 86% | −86 |
| 2026 Week 1 | @ Giants | L 20–28 | 85% | −85 |
