2019 season · final
Dallas Cowboys, 2019: game by game
The Cowboys went 8–8 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 13.6 wins. Luck cost them 5.6: the 2nd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–6.
Every game
How often the Cowboys win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Giants | W 35–17 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 2 | @ Washington | W 31–21 | 98% | +2 |
| Week 3 | vs Dolphins | W 31–6 | 100% | 0 |
| Week 4 | @ Saints | L 10–12 | 60% | −60 |
| Week 5 | vs Packers | L 24–34 | 95% | −95 |
| Week 6 | @ Jets | L 22–24 | 97% | −97 |
| Week 7 | vs Eagles | W 37–10 | 97% | +3 |
| Week 9 | @ Giants | W 37–18 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 10 | vs Vikings | L 24–28 | 60% | −60 |
| Week 11 | @ Lions | W 35–27 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 12 | @ Patriots | L 9–13 | 88% | −88 |
| Week 13 | vs Bills | L 15–26 | 59% | −59 |
| Week 14 | @ Bears | L 24–31 | 88% | −88 |
| Week 15 | vs Rams | W 44–21 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 16 | @ Eagles | L 9–17 | 46% | −46 |
| Week 17 | vs Washington | W 47–16 | 96% | +4 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Cowboys’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Injuries | +0.33 | +12.4 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.05 | +10.6 |
| Rest | +0.03 | +1.2 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.07 | +11.5 |
| Judgment calls | −0.08 | −5.0 |
| Kicks | −0.10 | +0.3 |