2019 season · final

Dallas Cowboys, 2019: game by game

The Cowboys went 8–8 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 13.5 wins. Luck cost them 5.5: the 2nd-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 1–6.

Every game

How often the Cowboys win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
Week 1	vs Giants	W 35–17	92%	+8
Week 2	@ Washington	W 31–21	98%	+2
Week 3	vs Dolphins	W 31–6	100%	0
Week 4	@ Saints	L 10–12	58%	−58
Week 5	vs Packers	L 24–34	93%	−93
Week 6	@ Jets	L 22–24	96%	−96
Week 7	vs Eagles	W 37–10	97%	+3
Week 9	@ Giants	W 37–18	96%	+4
Week 10	vs Vikings	L 24–28	56%	−56
Week 11	@ Lions	W 35–27	93%	+7
Week 12	@ Patriots	L 9–13	86%	−86
Week 13	vs Bills	L 15–26	60%	−60
Week 14	@ Bears	L 24–31	87%	−87
Week 15	vs Rams	W 44–21	92%	+8
Week 16	@ Eagles	L 9–17	45%	−45
Week 17	vs Washington	W 47–16	96%	+4

Game by game

The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.

Wk 1 +8 vs NYG

Wk 2 +2 @ WAS

Wk 3 0 vs MIA

Wk 4 −58 @ NO

Wk 5 −93 vs GB

Wk 6 −96 @ NYJ

Wk 7 +3 vs PHI

Wk 9 +4 @ NYG

Wk 10 −56 vs MIN

Wk 11 +7 @ DET

Wk 12 −86 @ NE

Wk 13 −60 vs BUF

Wk 14 −87 @ CHI

Wk 15 +8 vs LA

Wk 16 −45 @ PHI

Wk 17 +4 vs WAS

Where the luck came from

Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Cowboys’ favor.

Kind	Points	Per game
Injuries	+16.6	+1.04
3rd & 4th downs	+10.6	+0.66
Fumble bounces	+7.9	+0.49
Rest	+1.2	+0.07
Kicks	−0.4	−0.03
Judgment calls	−10.3	−0.64