luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2019 · September 15, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Washington, Week 2 2019: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat Washington 31–21, and the replays back it up: with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q3, 6:38 left): Washington converted 4th & 7, worth 8 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 31
Washington Redskins 21

September 15, 2019 · FedExField · Closing line: Cowboys −6

Luck index +2 Cowboys about even · −2 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 10, Washington wins 0.

  1. 1 DAL 41 WAS 6
  2. 2 DAL 35 WAS 6
  3. 3 DAL 33 WAS 9
  4. 4 DAL 27 WAS 6
  5. 5 DAL 34 WAS 17
  6. 6 DAL 29 WAS 13
  7. 7 DAL 30 WAS 17
  8. 8 DAL 38 WAS 27
  9. 9 DAL 20 WAS 13
  10. 10 DAL 13 WAS 10

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 98% of them, Washington 2%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+76.6%
Cowboys by 9–1615.4%
Cowboys by 1–85.9%
Level after regulation0.7%
Washington by 1–81.0%
Washington by 9–160.3%
Washington by 17+0.0%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.3 points to the Cowboys: the final margin was Cowboys by 10, without the luck Cowboys by 6.7. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Cowboys 8 for 67 yards, Washington 6 for 44 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 11:03 Offensive Holding on Washington (Jeremy Sprinkle), 10 yards +4% DAL +1.3 pts
Q1 3:47 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards +3% DAL +1.4 pts
Q2 11:26 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (DeMarcus Lawrence), 15 yards +3% WAS +1.5 pts
Q2 11:22 Offensive Holding on Washington, 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% DAL +1.6 pts
Q2 11:22 Encroachment on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% WAS +0.5 pts
Q2 9:55 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 2 yards +1% WAS +0.2 pts
Q2 0:49 Roughing the Passer on Washington (Montez Sweat), 6 yards +2% DAL +0.9 pts
Q2 0:20 Defensive Holding on Washington (Jimmy Moreland), 3 yards +4% DAL +1.1 pts
Q3 12:47 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the play +6% WAS +1.6 pts
Q3 8:42 Encroachment on the Cowboys (Christian Covington), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% WAS +0.6 pts
Q3 0:37 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Amari Cooper), 10 yards, wiping out the play +4% WAS +2.2 pts
Q3 0:01 False Start on the Cowboys, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% WAS +0.6 pts
Q4 4:05 Roughing the Passer on the Cowboys (Dorance Armstrong Jr.), 15 yards 0% WAS +1.8 pts
Q4 3:03 False Start on Washington (Jeremy Sprinkle), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% DAL +0.7 pts

Cowboys penalties, every game · Washington penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Washington’s chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while Washington was ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:27 Washington was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +5% DAL WAS: Punt
2 Q1 2:06 Washington converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% WAS WAS: Touchdown
3 Q2 3:48 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +5% DAL DAL: Touchdown
4 Q2 0:20 Defensive Holding on Washington (Jimmy Moreland), 3 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 62 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +4% DAL DAL: Touchdown
5 Q3 12:47 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% WAS WAS: Touchdown
6 Q3 6:38 Washington converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 37% expected +8% WAS WAS: Touchdown
7 Q3 0:37 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys (Amari Cooper), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 52 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +4% WAS WAS: Turnover on downs
8 Q4 11:14 Washington was stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 55% expected +5% DAL WAS: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonathan Allen (WAS DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jordan Reed (WAS TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Quinton Dunbar (WAS CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Fabian Moreau (WAS CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Greg Stroman (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 100% · Washington 0%

Final margin
Cowboys by 10
Luck in points
3.3 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 6.7
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 98% · Washington 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2019 games · Cowboys · Washington

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