luckadjusted

Week 2 2019 · September 15, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cowboys at Washington, Week 2 2019: who deserved to win?

The Cowboys beat Washington 31–21, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Cowboys win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Cowboys were 67% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 5:24 left): the Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 14 points of win probability to the Washington.

Final

Dallas Cowboys 31
Washington Redskins 21

September 15, 2019 · FedExField · Closing line: Cowboys −6

Luck index +2 Cowboys about even · −2 Washington

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cowboys win 10, Washington win 0.

  1. 1 DAL 42 WAS 10
  2. 2 DAL 27 WAS 0
  3. 3 DAL 41 WAS 17
  4. 4 DAL 23 WAS 3
  5. 5 DAL 41 WAS 23
  6. 6 DAL 21 WAS 6
  7. 7 DAL 27 WAS 14
  8. 8 DAL 24 WAS 14
  9. 9 DAL 13 WAS 7
  10. 10 DAL 17 WAS 14

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cowboys win 98% of them, Washington 2%. The line is what actually happened: Cowboys by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cowboys by 17+75.0%
Cowboys by 9–1616.3%
Cowboys by 1–86.5%
Level after regulation0.5%
Washington by 1–81.4%
Washington by 9–160.3%
Washington by 17+0.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Cowboys by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cowboys by 7.0.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

When it happened

Washington’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 78%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Washington were ahead in it, below while the Cowboys were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:27 Washington were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +5% DAL WAS: Punt
2 Q1 7:37 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +5% DAL DAL: Turnover
3 Q1 5:24 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +14% WAS DAL: Punt
4 Q2 13:35 The Cowboys were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% WAS DAL: Punt
5 Q2 3:48 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 83rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +5% DAL DAL: Touchdown
6 Q2 2:30 The Cowboys converted 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 76% expected +12% DAL DAL: Touchdown
7 Q3 12:47 Offensive Holding on the Cowboys, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +6% WAS WAS: Touchdown
8 Q3 6:38 Washington converted 4th & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +8% WAS WAS: Touchdown

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jonathan Allen (WAS DE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Jordan Reed (WAS TE), out · 0.7 pts
  • Quinton Dunbar (WAS CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Fabian Moreau (WAS CB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Greg Stroman (WAS CB), out (IR) · 0.2 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cowboys 97% · Washington 3%

Final margin
Cowboys by 10
Luck in points
3.0 for the Cowboys
Luck-adjusted margin
Cowboys by 7.0
Replay with same day's form
Cowboys 98% · Washington 2% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2019 games · Cowboys · Washington

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