luckadjusted

Week 2 2019 · September 15, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at Ravens, Week 2 2019: who deserved to win?

The Ravens beat the Cardinals 23–17, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Ravens win 10 of 10.

Before kickoff the Ravens were 83% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 3:42 left): Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (J.R. Sweezy), 4 yards, wiping out the play, worth 42 points of win probability to the Ravens.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 17
Baltimore Ravens 23

September 15, 2019 · M&T Bank Stadium · Closing line: Ravens −13

Luck index +5 Ravens about even · −5 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 0, Ravens win 10.

  1. 1 ARI 23 BAL 25
  2. 2 ARI 10 BAL 16
  3. 3 ARI 7 BAL 16
  4. 4 ARI 17 BAL 29
  5. 5 ARI 17 BAL 31
  6. 6 ARI 7 BAL 24
  7. 7 ARI 17 BAL 36
  8. 8 ARI 10 BAL 33
  9. 9 ARI 3 BAL 30
  10. 10 ARI 3 BAL 37

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 5% of them, Ravens 95%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 6.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+0.1%
Cardinals by 9–160.8%
Cardinals by 1–83.3%
Level after regulation0.6%
Ravens by 1–810.1%
Ravens by 9–1620.8%
Ravens by 17+64.3%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Ravens by 6. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Cardinals by 4.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 22 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Tucker, 33 yds made · 94% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 21 yds made · 99% expected
  • J. Tucker, 28 yds made · 97% expected
  • J. Tucker, 51 yds made · 69% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Ravens’ chance of winning

Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Ravens were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 4:39 The Ravens were stopped on 4th & 33rd & 4th downs · 52% expected +7% ARI BAL: Field goal
2 Q1 2:27 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 68% expected +5% BAL ARI: Field goal
3 Q1 1:53 The Ravens converted 3rd & 173rd & 4th downs · 20% expectedThe Ravens fumbled and recovered it themselvesFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 +10% BAL BAL: Field goal
4 Q2 12:16 The Cardinals converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 61% expected +5% ARI ARI: Field goal
5 Q2 10:57 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% ARI ARI: Field goal
6 Q4 9:02 J. Tucker made 51-yard field goalKicks · 69% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +5% BAL BAL: Field goal
7 Q4 3:42 Offensive Holding on the Cardinals (J.R. Sweezy), 4 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 1 flag in 93 snaps before, position avg 1 per 154 +42% BAL BAL: End of game
8 Q4 3:05 The Ravens converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 27% expected +6% BAL BAL: End of game

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Jimmy Smith (BAL CB), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tavon Young (BAL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 68% · Ravens 32%

Final margin
Ravens by 6
Luck in points
10.5 for the Ravens
Luck-adjusted margin
Cardinals by 4.5
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 5% · Ravens 95% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2019 games · Cardinals · Ravens

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