Week 2 2019 · September 15, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Chargers at Lions, Week 2 2019: who deserved to win?
The Lions beat the Chargers 13–10, but the replays lean toward the Chargers: they take 7 of 10 with the same day's form. Luck ran their way: fumble bounces alone were worth 9 points of win probability to the Lions.
Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 11:50 left): T. Long missed a 41-yard field goal, worth 16 points of win probability to the Lions. The biggest single swing (Q2, 6:02 left): M. Prater missed a 40-yard field goal.
Final
 Los Angeles Chargers | 10 |
|---|---|
 Detroit Lions | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +75 Lions very lucky · −75 Chargers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Chargers win 7, Lions win 3.
- 1 LAC 38 DET 10
- 2 LAC 38 DET 17
- 3 LAC 37 DET 20
- 4 LAC 16 DET 3
- 5 LAC 37 DET 27
- 6 LAC 26 DET 20
- 7 LAC 31 DET 28
- 8 LAC 21 DET 24
- 9 LAC 27 DET 34
- 10 LAC 30 DET 45
Your call
Did the Lions earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Chargers win 75% of them, Lions 25%, counting the 4% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Lions by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Chargers by 17+ | 24.8% |
| Chargers by 9–16 | 21.4% |
| Chargers by 1–8 | 24.5% |
| Level after regulation | 4.1% |
| Lions by 1–8 | 14.4% |
| Lions by 9–16 | 7.5% |
| Lions by 17+ | 3.1% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- M. Prater, 40 yds missed · 90% expected
- T. Long, 39 yds made · 91% expected
- T. Long, 39 yds missed · 91% expected
- T. Long, 41 yds missed · 88% expected
- Extra point missed · 96% expected
Penalties: Chargers 9 for 70 yards, Lions 8 for 71 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 2:00 | Offensive Holding on the Lions (Miles Killebrew), 10 yards | 0% LAC +0.9 pts |
| Q2 10:50 | Illegal Blindside Block on the Lions (Nick Bawden), 14 yards | 0% LAC +1.3 pts |
| Q2 8:56 | Face Mask on the Chargers (Thomas Davis), 15 yards | +6% DET +1.8 pts |
| Q2 5:14 | Defensive Holding on the Lions (Darius Slay), 5 yards | +4% LAC +0.9 pts |
| Q2 2:16 | Defensive Offside on the Chargers (Jerry Tillery), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DET +0.6 pts |
| Q2 1:30 | False Start on the Lions, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% LAC +0.2 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Offensive Holding on the Lions, 10 yards, wiping out the play | +5% LAC +1.7 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | Illegal Formation on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% DET +0.5 pts |
| Q3 12:06 | Offensive Holding on the Lions (T.J. Hockenson), 10 yards | +4% LAC +0.9 pts |
| Q3 11:33 | False Start on the Chargers (Travis Benjamin), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DET +0.8 pts |
| Q3 10:53 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Dontrelle Inman), 10 yards | +3% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q3 9:58 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Chargers, 10 yards | +3% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q3 9:48 | Illegal Shift on the Chargers (Virgil Green), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q3 8:39 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Lions (Darius Slay), 12 yards | +4% LAC +1.3 pts |
| Q3 6:36 | Offensive Holding on the Chargers (Uchenna Nwosu), 10 yards | +4% DET +0.9 pts |
| Q3 1:31 | False Start on the Lions (Jesse James), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% LAC +0.6 pts |
| Q4 1:10 | Delay of Game on the Chargers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +6% DET +0.4 pts |
Chargers penalties, every game · Lions penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Lions’ chance of winning
As low as 18% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q2 14:16 | The Lions converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 28% expected | +7% DET | DET: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 6:02 | M. Prater missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 90% expected for him | +16% LAC | DET: Punt |
| 3 | Q3 8:32 | The Chargers fumbled and the Lions recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +9% DET | LAC: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q3 2:13 | T. Long missed a 39-yard field goalKicks · 91% expected for him | +10% DET | LAC: Missed field goal |
| 5 | Q4 11:50 | The game turned hereT. Long missed a 41-yard field goalKicks · 88% expected for him | +16% DET | LAC: Turnover |
| 6 | Q4 8:06 | The Lions converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 75% expected | +10% DET | DET: Touchdown |
| 7 | Q4 7:05 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expected | +7% LAC | LAC: Turnover |
| 8 | Q4 3:23 | The Chargers converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 43% expected | +13% LAC | LAC: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Taylor Decker (DET T), out · 1.1 pts
- Jarrad Davis (DET LB), out · 0.3 pts
- Da'Shawn Hand (DET DE), out · 0.2 pts
- Derwin James (LAC FS), out (IR) · 0.7 pts
- Michael Davis (LAC CB), out · 0.6 pts
- Hunter Henry (LAC TE), out · 0.6 pts
- Jatavis Brown (LAC LB), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Chargers 51% · Lions 49%
- Final margin
- Lions by 3
- Luck in points
- 3.5 for the Lions
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Chargers by 0.5
- Replay with same day's form
- Chargers 75% · Lions 25% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2019 games · 
Chargers · 
Lions
More from Week 2 2019
- Buccaneers at Panthers TB 20–14 · replay 79% for the winner
- Cardinals at Ravens BAL 23–17 · replay 96% for the winner
- Bills at Giants BUF 28–14 · replay 52% for the winner
- Cowboys at Washington DAL 31–21 · replay 98% for the winner
- Colts at Titans IND 19–17 · replay 79% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans HOU 13–12 · replay 86% for the winner
- Vikings at Packers GB 21–16 · replay 62% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins NE 43–0 · replay 98% for the winner
- Seahawks at Steelers SEA 28–26 · replay 57% for the winner
- 49ers at Bengals SF 41–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- Chiefs at Raiders KC 28–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bears at Broncos CHI 16–14 · replay 10% for the winner
- Saints at Rams LA 27–9 · replay 79% for the winner
- Eagles at Falcons ATL 24–20 · replay 90% for the winner
- Browns at Jets CLE 23–3 · replay 98% for the winner