luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 2 2019 · September 15, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Bills at Giants, Week 2 2019: who deserved to win?

The Bills beat the Giants 28–14, but the replays call it close to a coin flip: with the way both teams played, the Bills win 5 of 10.

Before kickoff it was a pick’em. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:39 left): the Bills converted 3rd & 10, worth 10 points of win probability to the Bills.

Final

Buffalo Bills 28
New York Giants 14

September 15, 2019 · MetLife Stadium · Closing line: Bills −1

Luck index +48 Bills lucky · −48 Giants

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Bills win 5, Giants win 5.

  1. 1 BUF 34 NYG 7
  2. 2 BUF 34 NYG 17
  3. 3 BUF 41 NYG 31
  4. 4 BUF 36 NYG 31
  5. 5 BUF 12 NYG 10
  6. 6 BUF 29 NYG 31
  7. 7 BUF 17 NYG 23
  8. 8 BUF 14 NYG 23
  9. 9 BUF 21 NYG 36
  10. 10 BUF 17 NYG 38

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Bills win 52% of them, Giants 48%, counting the 5% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Bills by 14.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Bills by 17+13.7%
Bills by 9–1614.9%
Bills by 1–820.1%
Level after regulation4.9%
Giants by 1–820.6%
Giants by 9–1614.1%
Giants by 17+11.6%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +3.6 points to the Bills: the final margin was Bills by 14, without the luck Bills by 10.4. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

Penalties: Bills 9 for 65 yards, Giants 7 for 40 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 9:45 False Start on the Giants (T.J. Jones), 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +0.4 pts
Q2 15:00 False Start on the Bills, 4 yards · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.7 pts
Q2 8:32 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the play +7% NYG +2.3 pts
Q2 1:38 Unnecessary Roughness on the Bills, 15 yards +2% NYG +1.4 pts
Q2 1:38 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Giants (Markus Golden), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% BUF +0.4 pts
Q3 12:33 Illegal Formation on the Giants, 5 yards · pre-snap +3% BUF +1.6 pts
Q3 10:04 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the play +5% BUF +2.4 pts
Q3 7:55 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.7 pts
Q3 7:22 Defensive Pass Interference on the Giants (Deandre Baker), 9 yards +1% BUF +1.1 pts
Q3 4:49 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.8 pts
Q4 11:17 Illegal Blindside Block on the Bills (Dawson Knox), 15 yards +5% NYG +1.4 pts
Q4 10:41 Defensive Holding on the Giants (Jackrabbit Jenkins), 5 yards 0% BUF +0.2 pts
Q4 6:40 Unnecessary Roughness on the Giants (Dexter Lawrence), 1 yard +3% BUF +3.2 pts
Q4 5:53 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Bills (Ed Oliver), 5 yards · pre-snap +1% NYG +0.7 pts
Q4 4:56 False Start on the Bills, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% NYG +0.7 pts
Q4 3:34 False Start on the Bills (Lee Smith), 1 yard · pre-snap +2% NYG +0.4 pts

Bills penalties, every game · Giants penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Giants’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 76%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Giants were ahead in it, below while the Bills were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 9:45 The Giants were stopped on 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 29% expectedFalse Start on the Giants (T.J. Jones), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · no snap history yet +5% BUF NYG: Punt
2 Q1 1:39 The Bills converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 30% expected +10% BUF BUF: Touchdown
3 Q2 14:10 The Bills converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 31% expected +4% BUF BUF: Touchdown
4 Q2 8:32 Offensive Holding on the Bills, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +7% NYG NYG: Missed field goal
5 Q2 1:54 A. Rosas missed a 48-yard field goalKicks · 75% expected for him, 0 of 0 from 45+ before +5% BUF NYG: Turnover
6 Q2 1:38 The Bills were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 56% expectedUnnecessary Roughness on the Bills, 15 yardsJudgment callsNeutral Zone Infraction on the Giants (Markus Golden), 5 yardsPre-snap flags · 1 flag in 60 snaps before, position avg 1 per 249 +6% NYG BUF: Punt
7 Q3 10:04 Offensive Holding on the Giants, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +5% BUF BUF: Punt
8 Q4 11:17 Illegal Blindside Block on the Bills (Dawson Knox), 15 yardsJudgment calls · 0 flags in 44 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 +5% NYG NYG: Turnover on downs

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Sterling Shepard (NYG WR), out · 0.5 pts
  • Taron Johnson (BUF CB), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Bills 99% · Giants 1%

Final margin
Bills by 14
Luck in points
3.6 for the Bills
Luck-adjusted margin
Bills by 10.4
Replay with same day's form
Bills 52% · Giants 48% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2019 games · Bills · Giants

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