Week 2 2019 · September 15, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Saints at Rams, Week 2 2019: who deserved to win?
The Rams beat the Saints 27–9 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Saints had the bounces: fumble bounces alone were worth 3.1 points to the Saints.
Before kickoff the Rams were 56% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 6:08 left): the Rams were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 15 points of win probability to the Saints.
Final
 New Orleans Saints | 9 |
|---|---|
 Los Angeles Rams | 27 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +21 Rams about even · −21 Saints
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Saints win 2, Rams win 8.
- 1 NO 24 LA 10
- 2 NO 30 LA 27
- 3 NO 17 LA 19
- 4 NO 23 LA 27
- 5 NO 10 LA 17
- 6 NO 14 LA 24
- 7 NO 13 LA 27
- 8 NO 20 LA 37
- 9 NO 3 LA 24
- 10 NO 10 LA 40
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Saints win 21% of them, Rams 79%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Rams by 18.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Saints by 17+ | 2.4% |
| Saints by 9–16 | 6.0% |
| Saints by 1–8 | 12.2% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| Rams by 1–8 | 25.7% |
| Rams by 9–16 | 21.2% |
| Rams by 17+ | 30.4% |
Where the luck was
Take the luck out
The final margin was Rams by 18. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Rams by 20.9.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- G. Zuerlein, 24 yds made · 99% expected
- W. Lutz, 34 yds made · 94% expected
- G. Zuerlein, 22 yds made · 99% expected
- W. Lutz, 52 yds made · 69% expected
- W. Lutz, 42 yds made · 85% expected
When it happened
Rams’ chance of winning
Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 13:50 | The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +6% NO | NO: Turnover |
| 2 | Q1 11:40 | The Rams converted 3rd & 163rd & 4th downs · 21% expected | +13% LA | LA: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 1:37 | Offensive Holding on the Saints, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% LA | LA: Punt |
| 4 | Q2 12:46 | The Saints converted 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 33% expected | +7% NO | NO: Field goal |
| 5 | Q2 11:15 | The Saints were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected | +7% LA | NO: Field goal |
| 6 | Q2 6:59 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Rams, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls | +8% NO | NO: Turnover on downs |
| 7 | Q2 6:08 | The Rams were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedThe Rams fumbled and the Saints recoveredFumble bounces · loose balls are close to 50/50 | +15% NO | LA: Field goal |
| 8 | Q2 2:47 | The Saints were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +7% LA | NO: End of half |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Sheldon Rankins (NO DT), out · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Saints 0% · Rams 100%
- Final margin
- Rams by 18
- Luck in points
- 2.9 for the Saints
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Rams by 20.9
- Replay with same day's form
- Saints 21% · Rams 79% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 2 2019 games · 
Saints · 
Rams
More from Week 2 2019
- Buccaneers at Panthers TB 20–14 · replay 77% for the winner
- Cardinals at Ravens BAL 23–17 · replay 95% for the winner
- Bills at Giants BUF 28–14 · replay 55% for the winner
- Cowboys at Washington DAL 31–21 · replay 98% for the winner
- Colts at Titans IND 19–17 · replay 80% for the winner
- Jaguars at Texans HOU 13–12 · replay 86% for the winner
- Chargers at Lions DET 13–10 · replay 28% for the winner
- Vikings at Packers GB 21–16 · replay 60% for the winner
- Patriots at Dolphins NE 43–0 · replay 98% for the winner
- Seahawks at Steelers SEA 28–26 · replay 55% for the winner
- 49ers at Bengals SF 41–17 · replay 99% for the winner
- Chiefs at Raiders KC 28–10 · replay 87% for the winner
- Bears at Broncos CHI 16–14 · replay 10% for the winner
- Eagles at Falcons ATL 24–20 · replay 88% for the winner
- Browns at Jets CLE 23–3 · replay 98% for the winner