2019 season · final
New Orleans Saints, 2019: game by game
The Saints went 13–3 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.6 wins. Luck added 2.4: the 6th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–1.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.6.
Every game
How often the Saints win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Texans | W 30–28 | 45% | +55 |
| Week 2 | @ Rams | L 9–27 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 3 | @ Seahawks | W 33–27 | 67% | +33 |
| Week 4 | vs Cowboys | W 12–10 | 40% | +60 |
| Week 5 | vs Buccaneers | W 31–24 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 6 | @ Jaguars | W 13–6 | 49% | +51 |
| Week 7 | @ Bears | W 36–25 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 8 | vs Cardinals | W 31–9 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 10 | vs Falcons | L 9–26 | 53% | −53 |
| Week 11 | @ Buccaneers | W 34–17 | 59% | +41 |
| Week 12 | vs Panthers | W 34–31 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 13 | @ Falcons | W 26–18 | 81% | +19 |
| Week 14 | vs 49ers | L 46–48 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 15 | vs Colts | W 34–7 | 93% | +7 |
| Week 16 | @ Titans | W 38–28 | 70% | +30 |
| Week 17 | @ Panthers | W 42–10 | 94% | +6 |
| Wild Card | vs Vikings | L 20–26 | 64% | −64 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Saints’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.71 | +2.9 |
| Fumble bounces | +0.56 | +17.4 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +0.16 | +5.9 |
| Rest | −0.03 | −1.2 |
| Injuries | −0.06 | −1.8 |
| Judgment calls | −0.90 | −38.0 |