2019 season · final
New Orleans Saints, 2019: game by game
The Saints went 13–3 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 10.9 wins. Luck added 2.1: the 7th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–1.
Playoffs: 0–1, replay wins 0.6.
Every game
How often the Saints win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Texans | W 30–28 | 53% | +47 |
| Week 2 | @ Rams | L 9–27 | 21% | −21 |
| Week 3 | @ Seahawks | W 33–27 | 69% | +31 |
| Week 4 | vs Cowboys | W 12–10 | 42% | +58 |
| Week 5 | vs Buccaneers | W 31–24 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 6 | @ Jaguars | W 13–6 | 49% | +51 |
| Week 7 | @ Bears | W 36–25 | 99% | +1 |
| Week 8 | vs Cardinals | W 31–9 | 96% | +4 |
| Week 10 | vs Falcons | L 9–26 | 53% | −53 |
| Week 11 | @ Buccaneers | W 34–17 | 61% | +39 |
| Week 12 | vs Panthers | W 34–31 | 85% | +15 |
| Week 13 | @ Falcons | W 26–18 | 83% | +17 |
| Week 14 | vs 49ers | L 46–48 | 33% | −33 |
| Week 15 | vs Colts | W 34–7 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 16 | @ Titans | W 38–28 | 72% | +28 |
| Week 17 | @ Panthers | W 42–10 | 95% | +5 |
| Wild Card | vs Vikings | L 20–26 | 65% | −65 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck in points over the regular season, by kind, at the fitted luck shares. Positive: in the Saints’ favor.
| Kind | Points | Per game |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +12.6 | +0.79 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | +8.7 | +0.54 |
| Kicks | +3.4 | +0.21 |
| Rest | −1.2 | −0.07 |
| Injuries | −2.5 | −0.15 |
| Judgment calls | −76.7 | −4.79 |