luckadjusted

Week 11 2019 · November 17, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Saints at Buccaneers, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?

The Saints beat the Buccaneers 34–17 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Buccaneers had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 7.9 points to the Buccaneers.

Before kickoff the Saints were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 2:21 left): Offensive Holding on the Saints (Jared Cook), 10 yards, wiping out the play, worth 9 points of win probability to the Buccaneers.

Final

New Orleans Saints 34
Tampa Bay Buccaneers 17

November 17, 2019 · Raymond James Stadium · Closing line: Saints −5

Luck index +39 Saints lucky · −39 Buccaneers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Saints win 6, Buccaneers win 4.

  1. 1 NO 40 TB 17
  2. 2 NO 31 TB 15
  3. 3 NO 28 TB 17
  4. 4 NO 13 TB 5
  5. 5 NO 27 TB 23
  6. 6 NO 37 TB 35
  7. 7 NO 27 TB 30
  8. 8 NO 16 TB 23
  9. 9 NO 13 TB 27
  10. 10 NO 6 TB 29

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Saints win 61% of them, Buccaneers 39%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Saints by 17.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Saints by 17+14.0%
Saints by 9–1616.7%
Saints by 1–828.4%
Level after regulation2.8%
Buccaneers by 1–819.1%
Buccaneers by 9–1611.6%
Buccaneers by 17+7.4%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Saints by 17. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Saints by 26.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • W. Lutz, 44 yds made · 82% expected
  • W. Lutz, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • M. Gay, 55 yds made · 66% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Buccaneers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Buccaneers were ahead in it, below while the Saints were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 8:07 The Buccaneers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 45% expected +4% NO TB: Punt
2 Q1 5:03 The Saints converted 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +4% NO NO: Field goal
3 Q1 2:21 Offensive Holding on the Saints (Jared Cook), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 292 snaps before, position avg 1 per 253 +9% TB TB: Turnover
4 Q2 2:04 Offensive Pass Interference on the Saints (Tre'Quan Smith), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 153 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +4% TB TB: Turnover
5 Q2 1:29 Defensive Holding on the Saints (P.J. Williams), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 2 flags in 419 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +6% TB TB: Turnover
6 Q3 8:22 The Saints converted 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 53% expected +5% NO NO: Touchdown
7 Q4 12:02 Offensive Pass Interference on the Buccaneers (Mike Evans), 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 0 flags in 588 snaps before, position avg 1 per 331 +7% NO NO: Punt
8 Q4 5:19 The Buccaneers were stopped on 4th & 103rd & 4th downs · 27% expectedReturn touchdown by the SaintsSpecial teams +8% NO TB: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Carl Nassib (TB DE), out · 0.4 pts
  • M.J. Stewart (TB CB), out · 0.3 pts
  • Marshon Lattimore (NO CB), out · 1.0 pts
  • Andrus Peat (NO G), out · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Saints 100% · Buccaneers 0%

Final margin
Saints by 17
Luck in points
9.7 for the Buccaneers
Luck-adjusted margin
Saints by 26.7
Replay with same day's form
Saints 61% · Buccaneers 39% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · Saints · Buccaneers

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