luckadjusted

Week 11 2019 · November 17, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Cardinals at 49ers, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?

The 49ers beat the Cardinals 36–26, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the 49ers win 9 of 10. The Cardinals had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 8.4 points to the Cardinals.

Before kickoff the 49ers were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 4:41 left): the 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 7, worth 30 points of win probability to the Cardinals.

Final

Arizona Cardinals 26
San Francisco 49ers 36

November 17, 2019 · Levi's Stadium · Closing line: 49ers −10

Luck index +8 49ers about even · −8 Cardinals

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Cardinals win 1, 49ers win 9.

  1. 1 ARI 34 SF 27
  2. 2 ARI 19 SF 21
  3. 3 ARI 17 SF 22
  4. 4 ARI 33 SF 42
  5. 5 ARI 14 SF 26
  6. 6 ARI 17 SF 31
  7. 7 ARI 20 SF 37
  8. 8 ARI 6 SF 27
  9. 9 ARI 3 SF 28
  10. 10 ARI 9 SF 41

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Cardinals win 8% of them, 49ers 92%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: 49ers by 10.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Cardinals by 17+0.3%
Cardinals by 9–161.6%
Cardinals by 1–85.3%
Level after regulation0.9%
49ers by 1–811.6%
49ers by 9–1621.9%
49ers by 17+58.5%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was 49ers by 10. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes 49ers by 17.5.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Z. Gonzalez, 26 yds made · 98% expected
  • C. McLaughlin, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • Z. Gonzalez, 43 yds made · 85% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

49ers’ chance of winning

As low as 14% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the 49ers were ahead in it, below while the Cardinals were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 12:03 Defensive Pass Interference on the 49ers (Richard Sherman), 41 yardsJudgment calls · 2 flags in 496 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +17% ARI ARI: Field goal
2 Q1 4:54 The Cardinals converted 3rd & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expected +10% ARI ARI: Touchdown
3 Q2 0:45 Offensive Holding on the 49ers, 10 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls +16% ARI ARI: Punt
4 Q3 5:32 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected +25% ARI SF: Touchdown
5 Q3 1:30 The 49ers converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +13% SF SF: Touchdown
6 Q4 10:48 Illegal Shift on the Cardinals, 5 yards, wiping out the playPre-snap flags +13% SF SF: Turnover
7 Q4 4:41 The 49ers were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +30% ARI SF: Touchdown
8 Q4 3:05 The Cardinals were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 38% expected +10% SF ARI: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • George Kittle (SF TE), out · 1.0 pts
  • Joe Staley (SF T), out · 1.0 pts
  • Kwon Alexander (SF LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Robbie Gould (SF K), out · 0.3 pts
  • Damiere Byrd (ARI WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Tramaine Brock (ARI CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Jordan Mills (ARI T), out (IR) · 0.4 pts
  • Jonathan Bullard (ARI DE), out · 0.3 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Cardinals 4% · 49ers 96%

Final margin
49ers by 10
Luck in points
7.5 for the Cardinals
Luck-adjusted margin
49ers by 17.5
Replay with same day's form
Cardinals 8% · 49ers 92% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · Cardinals · 49ers

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