luckadjusted
NFL Week 9 · 2026

Week 11 2019 · November 17, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Broncos at Vikings, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Broncos 27–23, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 77% favorites. The game turned on a luck play (Q4, 8:19 left): B. McManus missed a 43-yard field goal, worth 21 points of win probability to the Vikings. The biggest single swing (Q4, 1:57 left): the Broncos converted 4th & 6.

Final

Denver Broncos 23
Minnesota Vikings 27

November 17, 2019 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −10

Luck index +35 Vikings lucky · −35 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 4, Vikings win 6.

  1. 1 DEN 27 MIN 10
  2. 2 DEN 24 MIN 14
  3. 3 DEN 19 MIN 14
  4. 4 DEN 16 MIN 14
  5. 5 DEN 19 MIN 21
  6. 6 DEN 23 MIN 27
  7. 7 DEN 16 MIN 24
  8. 8 DEN 21 MIN 33
  9. 9 DEN 17 MIN 34
  10. 10 DEN 14 MIN 40

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 35% of them, Vikings 65%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+5.0%
Broncos by 9–169.4%
Broncos by 1–819.7%
Level after regulation2.5%
Vikings by 1–825.8%
Vikings by 9–1619.4%
Vikings by 17+18.2%

Where the luck was

What the luck was worth

Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.

Swings add up across a game, so in one that went back and forth they can pass 100%. On the scoreboard the same luck was worth +2.6 points to the Broncos: the final margin was Vikings by 4, without the luck Vikings by 6.6. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each kind is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 47 yds made · 78% expected
  • B. McManus, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. McManus, 41 yds made · 89% expected
  • B. McManus, 43 yds missed · 86% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

Penalties: Broncos 6 for 35 yards, Vikings 5 for 49 yards

Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued

WhenFlagWin probability for
Q1 15:00 Illegal Formation on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +2% MIN +0.8 pts
Q1 5:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Xavier Rhodes), 24 yards +8% DEN +1.8 pts
Q1 3:12 False Start on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +1% DEN +0.8 pts
Q2 10:17 Offensive Holding on the Vikings, 10 yards, wiping out the play +8% DEN +4.1 pts
Q2 7:38 Illegal Use of Hands on the Vikings (Everson Griffen), 5 yards +2% DEN +1.5 pts
Q2 3:05 Defensive Offside on the Broncos (Von Miller), 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.4 pts
Q3 9:40 Neutral Zone Infraction on the Vikings, 5 yards · pre-snap +4% DEN +2.8 pts
Q3 8:35 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap 0% MIN +0.6 pts
Q3 1:15 Defensive Pass Interference on the Broncos (Duke Dawson), 5 yards +3% MIN +1.5 pts
Q4 4:22 Offensive Holding on the Broncos, 10 yards +5% MIN +0.9 pts
Q4 3:32 False Start on the Broncos, 5 yards · pre-snap +5% MIN +1.0 pts

Broncos penalties, every game · Vikings penalties, every game · All teams, 2019

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 4% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 5:00 Defensive Pass Interference on the Vikings (Xavier Rhodes), 24 yardsJudgment calls · 6 flags in 566 snaps before, position avg 1 per 199 +8% DEN DEN: Touchdown
2 Q4 8:19 The game turned hereB. McManus missed a 43-yard field goalKicks · 86% expected for him +21% MIN DEN: End of game
3 Q4 6:37 The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 42% expected +9% MIN MIN: Touchdown
4 Q4 5:06 The Broncos converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 21% expected +12% DEN DEN: End of game
5 Q4 3:32 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 35% expectedFalse Start on the Broncos, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +10% MIN DEN: End of game
6 Q4 3:27 The Broncos converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +17% DEN DEN: End of game
7 Q4 1:57 The Broncos converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 36% expected +25% DEN DEN: End of game
8 Q4 0:02 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +18% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Adam Thielen (MIN WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Anthony Harris (MIN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Linval Joseph (MIN NT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Josh Kline (MIN G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Joe Flacco (DEN QB), out (IR), replaced by b.allen · 0.5 pts
  • Bradley Chubb (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 23% · Vikings 77%

Final margin
Vikings by 4
Luck in points
2.6 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 6.6
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 35% · Vikings 65% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

None by default: our tests measured no carryover after a lucky break. Slide it up to count a break for more than its own swing. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · Broncos · Vikings

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