luckadjusted

Week 11 2019 · November 17, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Broncos at Vikings, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?

The Vikings beat the Broncos 27–23 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 6 of 10. The Broncos had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 5.0 points to the Broncos.

Before kickoff the Vikings were 77% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:02 left): the Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 4, worth 41 points of win probability to the Vikings.

Final

Denver Broncos 23
Minnesota Vikings 27

November 17, 2019 · U.S. Bank Stadium · Closing line: Vikings −10

Luck index +37 Vikings lucky · −37 Broncos

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Broncos win 4, Vikings win 6.

  1. 1 DEN 24 MIN 6
  2. 2 DEN 34 MIN 24
  3. 3 DEN 27 MIN 21
  4. 4 DEN 18 MIN 16
  5. 5 DEN 29 MIN 32
  6. 6 DEN 7 MIN 13
  7. 7 DEN 10 MIN 20
  8. 8 DEN 10 MIN 23
  9. 9 DEN 17 MIN 34
  10. 10 DEN 6 MIN 30

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Broncos win 37% of them, Vikings 63%, counting the 3% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Vikings by 4.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Broncos by 17+5.0%
Broncos by 9–1610.3%
Broncos by 1–819.5%
Level after regulation2.8%
Vikings by 1–824.8%
Vikings by 9–1620.6%
Vikings by 17+17.1%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Vikings by 4. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Vikings by 9.1.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • B. McManus, 47 yds made · 78% expected
  • B. McManus, 29 yds made · 97% expected
  • B. McManus, 41 yds made · 88% expected
  • B. McManus, 43 yds missed · 85% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Vikings’ chance of winning

As low as 4% and as high as 100%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Vikings were ahead in it, below while the Broncos were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q4 10:29 The Vikings converted 3rd & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected +16% MIN MIN: Touchdown
2 Q4 8:19 B. McManus missed 43-yard field goalKicks · 85% expected for him +20% MIN DEN: End of game
3 Q4 6:37 The Vikings converted 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 40% expected +9% MIN MIN: Touchdown
4 Q4 5:06 The Broncos converted 3rd & 133rd & 4th downs · 19% expected +12% DEN DEN: End of game
5 Q4 3:32 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expectedFalse Start on the Broncos, 5 yardsPre-snap flags +12% MIN DEN: End of game
6 Q4 3:27 The Broncos converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +16% DEN DEN: End of game
7 Q4 1:57 The Broncos converted 4th & 63rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +25% DEN DEN: End of game
8 Q4 0:02 The Broncos were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 34% expected +41% MIN –

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Adam Thielen (MIN WR), out · 0.6 pts
  • Anthony Harris (MIN FS), out · 0.4 pts
  • Linval Joseph (MIN NT), out · 0.3 pts
  • Josh Kline (MIN G), out · 0.3 pts
  • Joe Flacco (DEN QB), out (IR), replaced by b.allen · 0.5 pts
  • Bradley Chubb (DEN LB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Broncos 17% · Vikings 83%

Final margin
Vikings by 4
Luck in points
5.1 for the Broncos
Luck-adjusted margin
Vikings by 9.1
Replay with same day's form
Broncos 37% · Vikings 63% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · Broncos · Vikings

More from Week 11 2019