Week 11 2019 · November 17, 2019
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Falcons at Panthers, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?
The Falcons beat the Panthers 29–3, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 8 of 10.
Before kickoff the Panthers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:18 left): Return touchdown by the Falcons, worth 15 points of win probability to the Falcons.
Final
 Atlanta Falcons | 29 |
|---|---|
 Carolina Panthers | 3 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +23 Falcons about even · −23 Panthers
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Falcons win 8, Panthers win 2.
- 1 ATL 58 CAR 30
- 2 ATL 28 CAR 7
- 3 ATL 27 CAR 10
- 4 ATL 23 CAR 10
- 5 ATL 37 CAR 26
- 6 ATL 32 CAR 24
- 7 ATL 23 CAR 17
- 8 ATL 9 CAR 7
- 9 ATL 13 CAR 17
- 10 ATL 14 CAR 29
Your call
Did the Falcons earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Falcons win 77% of them, Panthers 23%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 26.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Falcons by 17+ | 29.1% |
| Falcons by 9–16 | 21.6% |
| Falcons by 1–8 | 24.8% |
| Level after regulation | 2.0% |
| Panthers by 1–8 | 13.0% |
| Panthers by 9–16 | 7.0% |
| Panthers by 17+ | 2.5% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- Y. Koo, 38 yds made · 89% expected
- Y. Koo, 38 yds missed · 89% expected
- Y. Koo, 23 yds made · 98% expected
- J. Slye, 31 yds made · 95% expected
- Y. Koo, 29 yds made · 96% expected
Penalties: Falcons 3 for 20 yards, Panthers 8 for 68 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q1 8:43 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Falcons, 5 yards | +1% CAR +0.7 pts |
| Q2 5:15 | False Start on the Panthers, 5 yards · pre-snap | +1% ATL +0.8 pts |
| Q2 4:56 | Chop Block on the Panthers, 13 yards, wiping out the play | +3% ATL +2.0 pts |
| Q2 2:35 | Ineligible Downfield Pass on the Falcons, 5 yards, wiping out the play | +2% CAR +1.2 pts |
| Q2 1:49 | Roughing the Passer on the Panthers, 1 yard | +1% ATL +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:34 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Panthers (Alex Armah), 9 yards | +1% ATL +0.8 pts |
| Q3 14:24 | Illegal Shift on the Panthers (Jarius Wright), 5 yards, wiping out the play · pre-snap | +1% ATL +1.2 pts |
| Q3 13:18 | Offensive Holding on the Panthers, 10 yards | +4% ATL +1.8 pts |
| Q3 6:40 | Illegal Block Above the Waist on the Panthers, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% ATL +1.8 pts |
| Q4 7:18 | Offensive Holding on the Falcons, 10 yards, wiping out the play | 0% CAR +3.0 pts |
| Q4 5:10 | Intentional Grounding on the Panthers, 15 yards | 0% ATL +1.4 pts |
Falcons penalties, every game · Panthers penalties, every game · All teams, 2019
When it happened
Panthers’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 14:16 | The Falcons converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 34% expected | +6% ATL | ATL: Field goal |
| 2 | Q1 12:24 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 39% expected | +5% CAR | ATL: Field goal |
| 3 | Q1 7:21 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +7% CAR | ATL: Missed field goal |
| 4 | Q1 6:39 | Y. Koo missed a 38-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him | +7% CAR | ATL: Punt |
| 5 | Q1 5:51 | The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 51% expected | +4% ATL | CAR: Punt |
| 6 | Q1 3:47 | The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 46% expected | +4% CAR | ATL: Punt |
| 7 | Q1 1:18 | Return touchdown by the FalconsSpecial teams | +15% ATL | ATL: Opp touchdown |
| 8 | Q2 12:07 | The Panthers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 60% expected | +7% CAR | CAR: Turnover |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Ross Cockrell (CAR CB), out · 0.5 pts
- Dennis Daley (CAR G), out · 0.2 pts
- Austin Hooper (ATL TE), out · 0.8 pts
- Devonta Freeman (ATL RB), out · 0.4 pts
- Keanu Neal (ATL FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
- Kemal Ishmael (ATL SS), out · 0.1 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Falcons 100% · Panthers 0%
- Final margin
- Falcons by 26
- Luck in points
- 4.0 for the Falcons
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Falcons by 22.0
- Replay with same day's form
- Falcons 77% · Panthers 23% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · 
Falcons · 
Panthers
More from Week 11 2019
- Steelers at Browns CLE 21–7 · replay 53% for the winner
- Bills at Dolphins BUF 37–20 · replay 96% for the winner
- Cowboys at Lions DAL 35–27 · replay 93% for the winner
- Broncos at Vikings MIN 27–23 · replay 65% for the winner
- Texans at Ravens BAL 41–7 · replay 95% for the winner
- Jaguars at Colts IND 33–13 · replay 92% for the winner
- Saints at Buccaneers NO 34–17 · replay 59% for the winner
- Jets at Washington NYJ 34–17 · replay 85% for the winner
- Cardinals at 49ers SF 36–26 · replay 92% for the winner
- Bengals at Raiders OAK 17–10 · replay 93% for the winner
- Patriots at Eagles NE 17–10 · replay 43% for the winner
- Bears at Rams LA 17–7 · replay 81% for the winner
- Chiefs vs Chargers KC 24–17 · replay 36% for the winner