luckadjusted

Week 11 2019 · November 17, 2019

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Falcons at Panthers, Week 11 2019: who deserved to win?

The Falcons beat the Panthers 29–3 and were the better team on the day: replayed with the same form, they win 8 of 10. The Panthers had the bounces: kicks alone were worth 2.9 points to the Panthers.

Before kickoff the Panthers were 60% favorites. The biggest swing (Q1, 1:18 left): Return touchdown by the Falcons, worth 15 points of win probability to the Falcons.

Final

Atlanta Falcons 29
Carolina Panthers 3

November 17, 2019 · Bank of America Stadium · Closing line: Panthers −3.5

Luck index +24 Falcons about even · −24 Panthers

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Falcons win 8, Panthers win 2.

  1. 1 ATL 42 CAR 10
  2. 2 ATL 37 CAR 14
  3. 3 ATL 45 CAR 28
  4. 4 ATL 24 CAR 10
  5. 5 ATL 24 CAR 13
  6. 6 ATL 21 CAR 13
  7. 7 ATL 31 CAR 26
  8. 8 ATL 17 CAR 15
  9. 9 ATL 16 CAR 19
  10. 10 ATL 10 CAR 23

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Falcons win 76% of them, Panthers 24%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Falcons by 26.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Falcons by 17+29.2%
Falcons by 9–1619.7%
Falcons by 1–826.7%
Level after regulation2.3%
Panthers by 1–813.1%
Panthers by 9–166.8%
Panthers by 17+2.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Falcons by 26. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Falcons by 21.2.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • Y. Koo, 38 yds made · 89% expected
  • Y. Koo, 38 yds missed · 89% expected
  • Y. Koo, 23 yds made · 98% expected
  • J. Slye, 31 yds made · 95% expected
  • Y. Koo, 29 yds made · 96% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Panthers’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 61%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Panthers were ahead in it, below while the Falcons were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 14:16 The Falcons converted 3rd & 93rd & 4th downs · 33% expected +6% ATL ATL: Field goal
2 Q1 10:55 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 43% expected +11% ATL CAR: Punt
3 Q1 7:21 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +7% CAR ATL: Missed field goal
4 Q1 6:39 Y. Koo missed 38-yard field goalKicks · 89% expected for him +7% CAR ATL: Punt
5 Q1 5:51 The Panthers were stopped on 3rd & 33rd & 4th downs · 49% expected +8% ATL CAR: Punt
6 Q1 3:47 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 53rd & 4th downs · 44% expected +5% CAR ATL: Punt
7 Q1 1:18 Return touchdown by the FalconsSpecial teams +15% ATL ATL: Opp touchdown
8 Q2 12:07 The Panthers converted 4th & 23rd & 4th downs · 57% expected +9% CAR CAR: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Ross Cockrell (CAR CB), out · 0.5 pts
  • Dennis Daley (CAR G), out · 0.2 pts
  • Austin Hooper (ATL TE), out · 0.8 pts
  • Devonta Freeman (ATL RB), out · 0.4 pts
  • Keanu Neal (ATL FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Kemal Ishmael (ATL SS), out · 0.1 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Falcons 100% · Panthers 0%

Final margin
Falcons by 26
Luck in points
4.8 for the Falcons
Luck-adjusted margin
Falcons by 21.2
Replay with same day's form
Falcons 76% · Panthers 24% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2019 games · Falcons · Panthers

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