2019 season · final
Atlanta Falcons, 2019: game by game
The Falcons went 7–9 in 2019; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 8.7 wins. Luck cost them 1.7: the 8th-unluckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 3–4.
Every game
How often the Falcons win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | @ Vikings | L 12–28 | 74% | −74 |
| Week 2 | vs Eagles | W 24–20 | 90% | +10 |
| Week 3 | @ Colts | L 24–27 | 31% | −31 |
| Week 4 | vs Titans | L 10–24 | 77% | −77 |
| Week 5 | @ Texans | L 32–53 | 36% | −36 |
| Week 6 | @ Cardinals | L 33–34 | 71% | −71 |
| Week 7 | vs Rams | L 10–37 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 8 | vs Seahawks | L 20–27 | 64% | −64 |
| Week 10 | @ Saints | W 26–9 | 47% | +53 |
| Week 11 | @ Panthers | W 29–3 | 77% | +23 |
| Week 12 | vs Buccaneers | L 22–35 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 13 | vs Saints | L 18–26 | 19% | −19 |
| Week 14 | vs Panthers | W 40–20 | 92% | +8 |
| Week 15 | @ 49ers | W 29–22 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 16 | vs Jaguars | W 24–12 | 95% | +5 |
| Week 17 | @ Buccaneers | W 28–22 | 13% | +87 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Falcons’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Fumble bounces | +0.30 | −2.3 |
| Judgment calls | +0.20 | +9.5 |
| Injuries | −0.06 | −3.0 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.15 | +6.1 |
| Kicks | −0.22 | −10.4 |