NFC South

Atlanta Falcons: how lucky, season by season

Since 2019, the Falcons have won 48 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 55.9. Luck cost them 7.9 wins. Their luckiest season was 2025 (+0.7 wins), the unluckiest 2020 (−2.1).

2026: 3–6 so far, replay wins 3.6 (−0.6 luck). 2026 game by game

Luck in wins, by season

Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.

2026 −0.6 3–6

2025 +0.7 8–9

2024 −1.5 8–9

2023 −2.0 7–10

2022 −1.4 7–10

2021 +0.1 7–10

2020 −2.1 4–12

2019 −1.7 7–9

Season	Record	Replay wins	Luck	One-score	Calls, wins	Playoffs
2026	3–6	3.6	−0.6	0–3	−0.06	–
2025	8–9	7.3	+0.7	5–5	+0.06	–
2024	8–9	9.5	−1.5	6–6	+0.22	–
2023	7–10	9.0	−2.0	4–6	+0.73	–
2022	7–10	8.4	−1.4	5–8	+0.88	–
2021	7–10	6.9	+0.1	7–2	+0.51	–
2020	4–12	6.1	−2.1	2–8	+0.49	–
2019	7–9	8.7	−1.7	3–4	+0.40	–

Where the luck came from

Luck from individual plays since 2019, by kind, in wins: each play weighted by the moment it happened, net of the opponent’s. Full seasons only.

Season	Luck in wins	Fumble bounces	Kicks	Drops	Judgment calls	Injuries	3rd & 4th downs
2025	+0.7	−0.20	+0.57	−1.00	+0.03	+0.37	−0.20
2024	−1.5	+0.77	−0.89	+0.69	+0.11	+0.51	−0.16
2023	−2.0	−0.14	−0.23	−0.50	+0.36	+0.42	−0.04
2022	−1.4	−0.34	+0.01	+0.07	+0.44	+0.16	−0.04
2021	+0.1	−0.03	+0.34	0.00	+0.25	+0.28	−0.27
2020	−2.1	+0.09	−0.22	0.00	+0.25	+0.37	+0.01
2019	−1.7	+0.30	−0.22	0.00	+0.20	−0.06	−0.15
Since 2019	−7.9	+0.45	−0.65	−0.75	+1.64	+2.06	−0.86

Are the Falcons lucky?

No, the opposite. Since 2019 the Falcons have won 48 regular-season games from play worth 55.9: −7.9 wins of luck, the 3rd-least of 32 teams.

Why have the Falcons had so much bad luck?

Most of it came from 3rd & 4th downs (−0.9 wins) and drops (−0.8 wins), each play weighted by the moment it came. In one-score games they are 32–39 since 2019, where the replays give them 36.1 wins. Most of these kinds of luck barely carry over from one season to the next, so runs like this tend to end.

What was the Falcons’ luckiest season?

2025: 8–9 from play worth 7.3 wins, +0.7 of luck. Their unluckiest was 2020: 4–12 from play worth 6.1 (−2.1).

By kind, every team: turnover luck · kicking luck · injury luck · where luck comes from

The Falcons’ luckiest wins

Wins the Falcons take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2020 Week 6	@ Vikings	W 40–23	9%	+91
2019 Week 17	@ Buccaneers	W 28–22	13%	+87
2025 Week 18	vs Saints	W 19–17	29%	+71
2024 Week 4	vs Saints	W 26–24	31%	+70
2024 Week 2	@ Eagles	W 22–21	33%	+67

The Falcons’ unluckiest losses

Losses the Falcons would win most often in a replay.

Week	Game	Result	Wins the replay	Luck index
2025 Week 13	@ Jets	L 24–27	91%	−91
2024 Week 18	vs Panthers	L 38–44	89%	−89
2020 Week 3	vs Bears	L 26–30	84%	−84
2019 Week 4	vs Titans	L 10–24	77%	−77
2020 Week 14	@ Chargers	L 17–20	77%	−77