NFC South
Atlanta Falcons: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Falcons have won 48 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 57.2. Luck cost them 9.2 wins. Their luckiest season was 2025 (+0.6 wins), the unluckiest 2023 (−2.4).
2026: 1–2 so far, replay wins 1.3 (−0.3 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, pts per game | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1–2 | 1.3 | −0.3 | 0–1 | −2.83 | – |
| 2025 | 8–9 | 7.4 | +0.6 | 5–5 | +0.43 | – |
| 2024 | 8–9 | 10.3 | −2.3 | 6–6 | −0.08 | – |
| 2023 | 7–10 | 9.4 | −2.4 | 4–6 | +1.23 | – |
| 2022 | 7–10 | 8.7 | −1.7 | 5–8 | +0.69 | – |
| 2021 | 7–10 | 6.7 | +0.3 | 7–2 | +1.75 | – |
| 2020 | 4–12 | 6.0 | −2.0 | 2–8 | +1.87 | – |
| 2019 | 7–9 | 8.7 | −1.7 | 3–4 | +1.24 | – |
Luckiest wins
Wins the Falcons take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2020 Week 6 | @ Vikings | W 40–23 | 10% | +90 |
| 2019 Week 17 | @ Buccaneers | W 28–22 | 14% | +86 |
| 2025 Week 15 | @ Buccaneers | W 29–28 | 20% | +80 |
| 2024 Week 4 | vs Saints | W 26–24 | 30% | +70 |
| 2025 Week 18 | vs Saints | W 19–17 | 33% | +67 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses the Falcons would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Week 18 | vs Panthers | L 38–44 | 95% | −95 |
| 2025 Week 13 | @ Jets | L 24–27 | 89% | −89 |
| 2023 Week 14 | vs Buccaneers | L 25–29 | 85% | −85 |
| 2020 Week 3 | vs Bears | L 26–30 | 82% | −82 |
| 2020 Week 14 | @ Chargers | L 17–20 | 77% | −77 |
