2021 season · final
Atlanta Falcons, 2021: game by game
The Falcons went 7–10 in 2021; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 6.9 wins. Luck added 0.1: the 16th-luckiest team in the league. In one-score games they went 7–2.
Every game
How often the Falcons win each game when it’s replayed with the way both teams played, and the luck index: 100 × (the result − that number).
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Week 1 | vs Eagles | L 6–32 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 2 | @ Buccaneers | L 25–48 | 14% | −14 |
| Week 3 | @ Giants | W 17–14 | 61% | +39 |
| Week 4 | vs Washington | L 30–34 | 30% | −30 |
| Week 5 | vs Jets | W 27–20 | 76% | +24 |
| Week 7 | @ Dolphins | W 30–28 | 55% | +45 |
| Week 8 | vs Panthers | L 13–19 | 73% | −73 |
| Week 9 | @ Saints | W 27–25 | 62% | +38 |
| Week 10 | @ Cowboys | L 3–43 | 6% | −6 |
| Week 11 | vs Patriots | L 0–25 | 7% | −7 |
| Week 12 | @ Jaguars | W 21–14 | 86% | +14 |
| Week 13 | vs Buccaneers | L 17–30 | 4% | −4 |
| Week 14 | @ Panthers | W 29–21 | 65% | +35 |
| Week 15 | @ 49ers | L 13–31 | 9% | −9 |
| Week 16 | vs Lions | W 20–16 | 60% | +40 |
| Week 17 | @ Bills | L 15–29 | 28% | −28 |
| Week 18 | vs Saints | L 20–30 | 23% | −23 |
Game by game
The luck index of each game, in order. Right: luckier than the play. Left: unluckier.
Where the luck came from
Luck over the regular season by kind, in wins: every lucky or unlucky play weighted by the moment it happened, so a missed kick at the end of a close game counts for far more than one in a blowout. Positive: in the Falcons’ favor. At the fitted luck shares.
| Kind | Wins | Points |
|---|---|---|
| Kicks | +0.34 | +5.7 |
| Injuries | +0.28 | +12.9 |
| Judgment calls | +0.25 | +15.0 |
| Fumble bounces | −0.03 | −6.4 |
| 3rd & 4th downs | −0.27 | −13.9 |