luckadjusted

Week 11 2021 · November 18, 2021

No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Patriots at Falcons, Week 11 2021: who deserved to win?

The Patriots beat the Falcons 25–0, and it was no fluke: replayed with the way both teams actually played, the Patriots win 9 of 10. The Falcons had the bounces: judgment calls alone were worth 4.7 points to the Falcons.

Before kickoff the Patriots were 70% favorites. The biggest swing (Q2, 7:16 left): the Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 1, worth 9 points of win probability to the Patriots.

Final

New England Patriots 25
Atlanta Falcons 0

November 18, 2021 · Mercedes-Benz Stadium · Closing line: Patriots −7

Luck index +7 Patriots about even · −7 Falcons

Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works

Ten replays. Patriots win 9, Falcons win 1.

  1. 1 NE 38 ATL 7
  2. 2 NE 38 ATL 14
  3. 3 NE 30 ATL 9
  4. 4 NE 27 ATL 10
  5. 5 NE 27 ATL 13
  6. 6 NE 31 ATL 20
  7. 7 NE 22 ATL 13
  8. 8 NE 18 ATL 12
  9. 9 NE 23 ATL 20
  10. 10 NE 13 ATL 20

Three other ways to ask

Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.

The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.

The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.

Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.

How 4,000 replays ended

Patriots win 93% of them, Falcons 7%, counting the 1% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Patriots by 25.

Show as a table
Final margin in the replaysShare of replays
Patriots by 17+60.1%
Patriots by 9–1622.1%
Patriots by 1–811.1%
Level after regulation0.7%
Falcons by 1–84.4%
Falcons by 9–161.5%
Falcons by 17+0.2%

Where the luck was

Take the luck out

The final margin was Patriots by 25. Remove the luck, one kind at a time, and it becomes Patriots by 22.7.

Each row takes one kind of luck out of the margin. Color shows which team it helped. Luck shares are the fitted ones (how much of each component is luck).

The kicks

How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.

  • N. Folk, 32 yds made · 96% expected
  • Y. Koo, 50 yds missed · 79% expected
  • N. Folk, 44 yds made · 84% expected
  • N. Folk, 53 yds made · 71% expected
  • N. Folk, 33 yds made · 96% expected
  • Extra point missed · 93% expected
Bar: expected chance of a make. Filled dot: made. Open dot: missed or blocked.

When it happened

Falcons’ chance of winning

As low as 0% and as high as 60%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.

nflfastR’s in-game win probability. It ignores the betting line, so it starts near even. Shaded above the middle while the Falcons were ahead in it, below while the Patriots were.
#WhenWhat happenedWin probability forNext drive
1 Q1 13:50 Defensive Pass Interference on the Falcons, 14 yardsJudgment calls +5% NE NE: Punt
2 Q1 12:31 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 43rd & 4th downs · 47% expected +5% ATL NE: Punt
3 Q1 5:23 The Patriots were stopped on 3rd & 73rd & 4th downs · 35% expected +5% ATL NE: Field goal
4 Q2 9:21 The Falcons converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +8% ATL ATL: Missed field goal
5 Q2 7:16 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +9% NE ATL: Missed field goal
6 Q2 6:24 Y. Koo missed 50-yard field goalKicks · 79% expected for him, 20 of 22 from 45+ before +9% NE ATL: Punt
7 Q3 1:29 The Falcons were stopped on 3rd & 13rd & 4th downs · 71% expected +5% NE ATL: Turnover on downs
8 Q3 0:57 The Falcons were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 70% expected +7% NE ATL: Turnover

Missing players

Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.

  • Calvin Ridley (ATL WR), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
  • Isaiah Oliver (ATL CB), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
  • Steven Means (ATL LB), out (IR) · 0.1 pts
  • Jonathan Jones (NE CB), out (IR) · 0.4 pts

Adjust the assumptions

Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.

Only coin-flips re-rolled

Patriots 100% · Falcons 0%

Final margin
Patriots by 25
Luck in points
2.3 for the Patriots
Luck-adjusted margin
Patriots by 22.7
Replay with same day's form
Patriots 93% · Falcons 7% unchanged: why
How much of each is luck?

0% treats it as skill, 100% as pure luck. The tick is our fit.

What counts

We tested momentum on 19,000 lucky breaks and found none, so it's off by default. Why

Flip a play

Force the other outcome, in this game and in every replay: a made kick becomes a miss, a stop becomes a conversion, a flag goes the other way.

About these numbers

Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).

Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2021 games · Patriots · Falcons

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