Week 11 2021 · November 21, 2021
No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Ravens at Bears, Week 11 2021: who deserved to win?
The Ravens beat the Bears 16–13, and the replays lean their way: with the same day's form, they win 6 of 10. The Bears had the bounces: injuries alone were worth 13 points of win probability to the Bears.
Before kickoff the Ravens were 64% favorites. The biggest swing (Q4, 0:33 left): the Ravens converted 3rd & 12, worth 23 points of win probability to the Ravens.
Final
 Baltimore Ravens | 16 |
|---|---|
 Chicago Bears | 13 |
Replay with same day's form
Luck index +37 Ravens lucky · −37 Bears
Each team’s own plays from this game, resampled into new drives 4,000 times: with the way both teams actually played, how often does this performance win? How the replay works
Ten replays. Ravens win 6, Bears win 4.
- 1 BAL 24 CHI 0
- 2 BAL 24 CHI 7
- 3 BAL 22 CHI 10
- 4 BAL 10 CHI 2
- 5 BAL 31 CHI 26
- 6 BAL 23 CHI 21
- 7 BAL 20 CHI 23
- 8 BAL 9 CHI 16
- 9 BAL 20 CHI 31
- 10 BAL 6 CHI 24
Your call
Did the Ravens earn it, or get lucky?
Three other ways to ask
Each answers a different question, so none of them replaces the replay above.
Before kickoff
The closing betting line, turned into a probability. What everyone knew before the game.
Same teams, fresh game
The line plus what this game showed, weighted by how much one game can tell. It stays close to the line because one game says little.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Every kick, fumble bounce, drop, conversion and judgment call redrawn; everything else fixed. The narrowest view of luck.
How 4,000 replays ended
Ravens win 63% of them, Bears 37%, counting the 2% still level after regulation as half each. The line is what actually happened: Ravens by 3.
Show as a table
| Final margin in the replays | Share of replays |
|---|---|
| Ravens by 17+ | 18.6% |
| Ravens by 9–16 | 19.1% |
| Ravens by 1–8 | 25.0% |
| Level after regulation | 2.1% |
| Bears by 1–8 | 18.6% |
| Bears by 9–16 | 10.9% |
| Bears by 17+ | 5.7% |
Where the luck was
What the luck was worth
Every lucky and unlucky play, weighted by the moment it happened: its swing in win probability, added up by kind. A missed kick in a decided game counts for nothing; the same kick at the end of a tie game can be most of a win.
The kicks
How likely each kicker was to make that kick (his own record, the distance and the weather), and what happened.
- C. Santos, 40 yds missed · 87% expected
- J. Tucker, 35 yds made · 94% expected
- J. Tucker, 27 yds made · 98% expected
- J. Tucker, 46 yds made · 81% expected
Penalties: Ravens 6 for 36 yards, Bears 6 for 58 yards
Every accepted flag, in order, and what it did to the helped team’s chance of winning at that moment, including any play it wiped out (points on the scoreboard in grey). A flag in a decided game is worth nothing; one at the turn of a close game can be worth most of a win. Judgment calls count half toward luck; pre-snap fouls, which repeat, don’t count. How calls are valued
| When | Flag | Win probability for |
|---|---|---|
| Q2 11:15 | Delay of Game on the Ravens, 5 yards · pre-snap | +3% CHI +0.5 pts |
| Q2 1:57 | Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 5 yards, wiping out the play | +8% CHI +1.5 pts |
| Q3 15:00 | False Start on the Bears (Cole Kmet), 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BAL +0.8 pts |
| Q3 9:55 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Kindle Vildor), 17 yards | +5% BAL +2.5 pts |
| Q3 5:43 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +2% BAL +0.7 pts |
| Q3 4:28 | Defensive Too Many Men on Field on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | 0% CHI 0.0 pts |
| Q3 0:53 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards | +4% CHI +0.8 pts |
| Q4 12:50 | Neutral Zone Infraction on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 5 yards · pre-snap | +4% CHI +1.1 pts |
| Q4 1:48 | Roughing the Passer on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 1 yard | +1% CHI +0.1 pts |
| Q4 1:48 | False Start on the Bears, 5 yards · pre-snap | +9% BAL +0.2 pts |
| Q4 1:33 | Defensive Pass Interference on the Bears (Kindle Vildor), 21 yards | +4% BAL +0.7 pts |
| Q4 0:35 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yards | +18% CHI +1.0 pts |
Ravens penalties, every game · Bears penalties, every game · All teams, 2021
When it happened
Bears’ chance of winning
As low as 0% and as high as 79%. Numbers mark the biggest luck moments, listed below.
| # | When | What happened | Win probability for | Next drive |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Q1 6:03 | C. Santos missed a 40-yard field goalKicks · 87% expected for him | +10% BAL | CHI: Punt |
| 2 | Q2 1:57 | Defensive Holding on the Ravens (Marlon Humphrey), 5 yards, wiping out the playJudgment calls · 19 flags in 2819 snaps before, position avg 1 per 213 | +8% CHI | CHI: Punt |
| 3 | Q4 12:30 | The Bears were stopped on 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +14% BAL | CHI: Punt |
| 4 | Q4 2:42 | The Bears converted 4th & 13rd & 4th downs · 72% expected | +13% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 5 | Q4 1:48 | The Bears converted 4th & 113rd & 4th downs · 24% expectedRoughing the Passer on the Ravens (Odafe Oweh), 1 yardJudgment calls · 1 flag in 381 snaps before, position avg 1 per 409False Start on the Bears, 5 yardsPre-snap flags | +22% CHI | CHI: Touchdown |
| 6 | Q4 0:35 | Offensive Holding on the Ravens, 10 yardsJudgment calls | +18% CHI | CHI: End of game |
| 7 | Q4 0:33 | The Ravens converted 3rd & 123rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +23% BAL | BAL: Touchdown |
| 8 | Q4 0:14 | The Bears converted 3rd & 103rd & 4th downs · 25% expected | +9% CHI | CHI: End of game |
Missing players
Key players (usually on the field for half the snaps or more) who missed this game or part of it, valued by position and quality. The same players are missing in every replay, so this counts as luck in points only.
- Germain Ifedi (CHI T), out (IR) · 0.8 pts
- Eddie Jackson (CHI SS), out · 0.8 pts
- Allen Robinson (CHI WR), out · 0.7 pts
- Khalil Mack (CHI LB), out (IR) · 0.6 pts
- Akiem Hicks (CHI DT), out · 0.3 pts
- Lamar Jackson (BAL QB), out, replaced by t.huntley · 8.4 pts
- Marquise Brown (BAL WR), out · 0.7 pts
- Anthony Averett (BAL CB), out · 0.5 pts
- DeShon Elliott (BAL FS), out (IR) · 0.3 pts
Adjust the assumptions
Disagree with how much of a fumble bounce or a pass interference call is luck? Change it and the coin-flip replay reruns in your browser.
Only coin-flips re-rolled
Ravens 7% · Bears 93%
- Final margin
- Ravens by 3
- Luck in points
- 3.7 for the Ravens
- Luck-adjusted margin
- Bears by 0.7
- Replay with same day's form
- Ravens 63% · Bears 37% unchanged: why
About these numbers
Play-by-play and win probability from nflfastR via nflverse; kicks valued against each kicker’s own record; drops and interception-worthy throws from FTN charting (not available for this game); injuries from snap counts and injury reports. No FTN charting for this game (drops and interception-worthy throws are not modelled).
Methodology and validation · All Week 11 2021 games · 
Ravens · 
Bears
More from Week 11 2021
- Patriots at Falcons NE 25–0 · replay 93% for the winner
- Lions at Browns CLE 13–10 · replay 74% for the winner
- Packers at Vikings MIN 34–31 · replay 46% for the winner
- Texans at Titans HOU 22–13 · replay 11% for the winner
- Colts at Bills IND 41–15 · replay 58% for the winner
- Dolphins at Jets MIA 24–17 · replay 46% for the winner
- Saints at Eagles PHI 40–29 · replay 59% for the winner
- 49ers at Jaguars SF 30–10 · replay 91% for the winner
- Washington at Panthers WAS 27–21 · replay 68% for the winner
- Bengals at Raiders CIN 32–13 · replay 49% for the winner
- Cardinals at Seahawks ARI 23–13 · replay 64% for the winner
- Cowboys at Chiefs KC 19–9 · replay 84% for the winner
- Steelers at Chargers LAC 41–37 · replay 98% for the winner
- Giants at Buccaneers TB 30–10 · replay 97% for the winner