NFC North
Chicago Bears: how lucky, season by season
Since 2019, the Bears have won 48 regular-season games; replayed with the same day’s form, their play was worth 39.2. Luck added 8.8 wins. Their luckiest season was 2019 (+4.0 wins), the unluckiest 2022 (−1.4).
2026: 1–1 so far, replay wins 1.2 (−0.2 luck). 2026 game by game
Luck in wins, by season
Wins minus replay wins in the regular season. Right: luck added wins. Left: luck cost wins.
| Season | Record | Replay wins | Luck | One-score | Calls, pts per game | Playoffs |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026 | 1–1 | 1.2 | −0.2 | 0–1 | −0.19 | – |
| 2025 | 11–6 | 7.7 | +3.3 | 7–4 | −1.43 | 1–1 |
| 2024 | 5–12 | 4.4 | +0.6 | 3–7 | +0.81 | – |
| 2023 | 7–10 | 7.3 | −0.3 | 2–6 | −2.57 | – |
| 2022 | 3–14 | 4.4 | −1.4 | 1–7 | −0.61 | – |
| 2021 | 6–11 | 6.6 | −0.6 | 3–3 | −0.25 | – |
| 2020 | 8–8 | 4.8 | +3.2 | 6–5 | +0.60 | 0–1 |
| 2019 | 8–8 | 4.0 | +4.0 | 6–5 | +0.96 | – |
Luckiest wins
Wins the Bears take least often when the game is replayed with the way both teams played.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2024 Week 18 | @ Packers | W 24–22 | 3% | +97 |
| 2019 Week 17 | @ Vikings | W 21–19 | 9% | +91 |
| 2019 Week 2 | @ Broncos | W 16–14 | 10% | +90 |
| 2019 Week 14 | vs Cowboys | W 31–24 | 13% | +87 |
| 2019 Week 10 | vs Lions | W 20–13 | 14% | +86 |
Unluckiest losses
Losses the Bears would win most often in a replay.
| Week | Game | Result | Wins the replay | Luck index |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2021 Week 9 | @ Steelers | L 27–29 | 66% | −66 |
| 2025 Divisional round | vs Rams | L 17–20 | 66% | −66 |
| 2023 Week 4 | vs Broncos | L 28–31 | 66% | −66 |
| 2022 Week 6 | vs Commanders | L 7–12 | 62% | −62 |
| 2021 Week 15 | vs Vikings | L 9–17 | 56% | −56 |
